Merril Lynch – 15m Ultrabook Sales in 2012

Posted on 01 February 2012 by

Intel says 40%, Merril Lynch say 7%.

These two figures represent the highest and lowest numbers I’ve seen so far for 2012 Ultrabook sales. 40% was always a tough number to swallow but 7%, that’s 15m sales, sounds a bit low. Netbooks are predicted to sell 20m this year and with prices on new Ultrabooks targeting $699 in Q3, you could see quite the rush on Q4 sales.

“Ultrabook pricing will need to be lowered to about US$750 to gain broader acceptance, and vendors may be able to move closer to the target in 2012 by finding cost savings in the unit’s CPU, storage and casing, the bank said. ”

Reports yesterday showed that Acer, usually one of the price-beaters, was ready to focus on the $699-$799 market in Q3 this year.

Merril Lynch also estimates 50m sales in 2013.

In a previous report (Sept 2011 that is available here as a PDF) Merril Lynch said that a $600 price point would cover 50% of the price-band that laptops cover. That’s a 120 million unit ‘addressable market’ opportunity in 2013.

Not that we mind really. As long as there are good-value, good quality choices in the thin,light and productive laptop category we’re happy!

Ultrabooks forecast to make up 20% of notebook sales in 2013 – CNA ENGLISH NEWS.

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  • DavidC1

    I bet you’ll see most of the “70 models in 2012” introduced with Ivy Bridge launch, which is why Intel is estimating 40% notebook marketshare taken up by Ultrabooks by end of 2012.

    But its important to realize what Intel is saying. They are not saying 40% of Notebooks sold in 2012 will be Ultrabooks, they’ll just reach that at end of the year. That’ll mean total sales will be less.

    Let’s do some calculations:
    2012 PC market: 400 million
    Intel’s share: ~320 million(80% of total)
    Intel’s share in notebooks: ~200 million (63% of total)

    Assume an equal 50 million units a quarter.

    40% share in Q4 2012: 20 million
    40% share in latter half of Q4 2012: 10 million

    That’s not unreasonable at all. Q1 sales will be limited, and it won’t be until Ivy Bridge sales pick up quickly.

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  • Wouter

    I am buying one of those. However because of your great site, Chippy, its damn hard :(.

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