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ARM Reports From Computex

Chippy — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 21:20:54 +0000

I’m still in the process of unravelling all the ARM-related news from Computex to see what’s important and what is not but maybe ARM just saved me the trouble of going through a lot of news articles. They’ve got all the important links on their Computex blog. They’ve also created some great articles from within ARM

Laurance Bryant reports that Intels MID category is manufactured and that the smartphone market is the place to look. (I think he must have missed the news about Moorestown being in the smartphone game!)

Katie Morgan rounds up the ARM-related news. A must-read. (Another set of links here)

Rob Coombs says that the ARM software model is THE software model for smartbooks. : “There is a misconception that in the old world of x86 no porting is necessary. Well, this is only true if there is no further innovation around developing any new peripherals or advancing GPU/Video/Wireless solutions or supporting any new OS. Any of these changes require porting.” I tend to agree although Moblin seems to be tackling this problem well. The API is the key and both ARM and X86 have exactly the same issue. Like a swan, it needs to be graceful on the top while a lot of work goes on underneath to drive everything.

James Bruce has a teaser of an article. Why the Internet Experience will be better on your Smartphone. He argues that the always-on nature of a smartphone allows developers to think of more interesting applications. I totally agree. I’ve recently had UMPC devices that I have been able to leave on all day. People asked ‘why’ but I explain that IM, Skype and location services can run in the background. The problem with James’ argument is that all-day or even 24hr battery life isn’t only going to be capable on ARM devices. In 2010 ARM will start to lose their monopoly on this. Screen, radio, battery and software design becomes more important than how low a CPU can idle. Lets face it, with all these apps running in the background, most smartphone CPUs won’t even get to see an idle state!

Warren East talks about ARMs presence at Computex. “Well, I’ve spent a couple of days in Taiwan and I’m impressed. The ARM Partners who have targeted this new space are delivering.” It’s true. There were a ton of ARM-based products and I think we can safely say that it was ARM’s year at Computex in terms of media coverage. With the Pre, the N97 and the iPhone 3GS (which I assume is running an ARM core) news this week, the wave continues.

Finally, Bob Morris, Diretor of Mobile Computing reports: “what makes this year unique is the opportunity that they see in the diverging PC market and the potential to change what has been the legacy for the last 20+ years.” Yes, the market is diverging. Niches are becoming important. Choice is becoming important. Choice is now possible! Another must-read.

We’re entering a huge period of change in the computing market and it’s happening right under our noses in the mobile computing and mobile internet space. The next 5 years are going to be critical for all players. Lets see how Intel handles ARM’s home territory at Mobile World Congress in 2010.

P.S. Don’t miss the ARM ‘smart mobile devices’ blog too.

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Mobile Broadband Computing report predicts 341m users by 2014

Chippy — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 14:50:09 +0000

According to this report from the company, Disruptive-analysis, there’s currently 35 million global users of mobile broadband computing with Europe accounting for 50% of those users.

The summary is an interesting look at what could happen.

“Free” netbooks, provided on a subsidised basis by mobile operators on typical 2-year contracts are popular, but have a limited addressable market.
The new market category of MIDs will grow only slowly. Only 3m will be sold in 2009, although by 2014 this should grow to ten times that figure.

Unfortunately it doesnt mention the definition of a MID in the summary but that 3m figure suggests something other than iPhone-style mobile internet. The report also mentions tethering, USB dongles and LTE. Take a look at the summary report here:

Dean Bubley’s Disruptive Wireless: New Report:Mobile Broadband Computing - Device & Business Model Forecasts.

Via WirelessMoves who also has some good commentary

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My UMPC Price-check reveals stagnation.

Chippy — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 21:58:15 +0000

It’s always worth checking back on older models for reductions and clear-out prices so I took some time this evening to review the prices of some old favourites. I was disappointed. In general, prices haven’t really moved which is extremely disappointing considering the price at which similarly-specified netbooks are sold. I guess we’re looking at old stock that no-one can shift here. Stalemate. No cash flow. The only two devices I found that showed any signs of movement were the good old Samsung Q1 and M704 which seem to be on offer around Europe. Price checks in the US for all the top UMPCs showed that nothing has moved much at all in the last 6 months. (If you spot any offers though, let us know!)

Samsung Q1 Ultra

One of my personal favourite UMPCs. Good build quality, excellent battery life, fantastic screen.

UK. 646 pounds (740 Euros) isn’t too bad. (DigiUK)
Update: Saveonsamsung (UK) have even lower prices. 529 pounds with organiser and 6-cell battery.

Gigabyte M704

Another good all rounder. Not quite as good as the Q1 in terms of build quality but has a better keyboard.

Europe. 469 pounds (537 Euros) is a good bargain. (Expansys)

Resellers must be having a hard time right now trying to decide whether to clear stocks at a loss or to hang on for the few buyers that know what they want and will pay to get that device. I can tell you that by reviewing the stats coming from the product portal we see an extremely quiet market out there for the traditional XP and Vista UMPCs. With very few devices in the 7″ category, CES round the corner and netbooks taking the limelight, it’s hardly surprising. Lets hope that the MID and UMPC segment brings us some treats in January though. Mobile Internet usage is growing and, more importantly for the MID manufacturers, people’s reliance on the Internet to perform normal business and personal activities is growing too. There’s more reason than ever to launch internet-connected handheld computers.

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UK Mobile Internet User Numbers Grow 25%

Chippy — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 12:39:33 +0000

According to Neilsen Online, the mobile Internet audience in the UK is young and growing very quickly in numbers. In the last quarter (Q2-Q3, 2008) the number of people accessing content via ‘mobile Internet’ [undefined] grew by 25% to 7.3 million people, approximately one in 9 of the population, with about 50% of those being under 35 years old. The brief PDF overview also reveals some interesting info about what sites people want access to. Is it because the sites are mobile optimised or is the content that’s the significant thing here? In the top 10 sites accessed by mobile devices, the weather and sports info appear to be more popular on a mobile device than it is on a PC. BBC News, Google Search, BBC Weather and Facebook top the list although if you combine the three web-based email sites appearing in the list its clear that WebMail is the most important Mobile Internet application.

via Media Week

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IMMR Report: One in three to own a MID by end of 2011.

Chippy — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 11:47:49 +0000

In a recent ‘Thought Leaders’ study by Phil Hendrix of IMMR, a number of (US-based, I believe)people were asked the following question:

Three years from now, among individuals who own or use a PC, cellphone or smartphone, at home or work, what percentage do you think will have purchased a MID, again, by Q3 2011.

The average prediction is that by Q3 2011, 33% of these people will have a MID.

I know what you’re thinking. ‘No way.’ That’s what I thought until I read their definition of a MID. The IMMR definition of a MID is:

MIDs, or Mobile Internet Devices, are a new class of devices/PC’s that offer many of the features of a PC, but at 1-3lbs. are lightweight and portable enough to easily carry and use virtually anyplace, at any time.

Its not the definition that Intel use but its certainly the definition I’m hearing from ARM, Ti and others that regard even netbooks as mobile Internet devices. Based on that definition, I totally agree with the ‘Thought Leaders,’ whoever they may be.

A complimentary copy of the report, titled ‘The M in MIDs stands for Mobile’ and sponsored by GigaOM, the GSMA mobile Innovation Market and InMobile, can be downloaded from the IMMR website at www.immr.org and it’s an interesting read covering more than just the penetration question. There are some quotes from the respondents included too like these two that I hear a lot: “Someone who has an iPhone right now, essentially has a MID already” and “With smartphones taking on 80%+ of MID-type activities, it will be tough to convince people to carry yet another device.” So if the iPhone is a MID and more voice-enabled MIDs are on the horizon, what are we arguing about? Based on this segment of the market alone I’d say we will reach 30% penetration by end of 2011. Add netbooks into the mix and it’s almost a certainty but for me, the even nicer thought is imagining the hundreds of variations of mobile Internet-enabled devices that will appear.

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UMPC chart now with daily trends.

Chippy — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 17:30:08 +0000

I’ll be honest with you. I’m not sure what value this has for potential UMPC, Netbook and MID customers but its fun to look at!

It appears on the product overview page (which I’ve recently updated with more data columns and now has over 220 devices in it) and it shows rising and falling popularity relative to the top device. For example, the HP Mini was gaining on the Samsung NC10 when I generated the graph. The graph is updated daily.

One tip: Click on the arrows and you see the last 140 days popularity and how far away the device is from #1 spot.

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UMDs. 200 Million by 2013.

Chippy — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 19:20:28 +0000

That’s Ultra Mobile Devices to you and me and it’s a term I rather like. Anyway, back to the story where ABI Research tells us that the UMD market, comprising Netbooks, MIDs and UMPCs. (Don’t ask us which definitions they’re using!) will reach, wait for it, 200 million units by 2013.

The interesting prediction is that by 2013, MIDs (Lets assume they mean small, handheld PMP-style Internet devices) will surge to meet 68% of that figure and netbooks sales will drop back to second place.

I agree with the general underlying opinion that MIDs and Netbooks will be the big sellers with UMPCs (as pro-mobile devices) remaining niche but the big question is ‘when’ and ‘how’ will MIDs take off?

Source: ABIresearch. Via Vunet.

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Your multi-device Mobile strategy. Poll results and analysis.

Chippy — Thu, 08 May 2008 13:31:21 +0000

Reading Steve Litchfields review of the N82 this morning and then Warners interesting cogitations reminded of the multi-device strategy poll I posted a while back. Only a few days ago I was saying that I had been ‘locked-in’ to the N82 because of the camera and gps-related features and it’s because of this that it’s become my #1 UMPC partner device. It could be better (keys, dim screen, very slow browser, battery life) but right now, I don’t see a device that could challenge it with the sort of media-focused work I’m doing. In fact, partnered with the Q1 Ultra its damn-near perfect and constantly puts a question-mark over my desire for a MID/Carrypad. For me, at the moment, the 2-device mobile strategy is the one that fits best. But what about everyone else? Read on for more about my own strategy and a walk-through of other peoples ideas.

[Read full article after the break...]

As I said, the N82 and Q1 Ultra (with HSDPA-of course) combo is near-perfect for me and certainly the best combination of devices I’ve ever used but I’m coming to the end of a two-month XP TE evaluation period now with the Q1 Ultra (it was a Vista-base device originally) and I’m wondering if I should seek a new partner for the N82. Bearing in mind that I don’t own a notebook computer and that I don’t do heavy processing on a PC unless I’m doing video work at home on my desktops, a netbook might be a nice choice for coffee-shop moments but it would under-perform compared to something like a Q1 Ultra Premium so there doesn’t appear to be much logic in using a netbook, especially when you consider that the Q1 has a better screen than all the current 7" netbooks (apart from some of the expensive options like the VyePC SH8) and that the Samsung accessory keyboard is far better than the Eee PC/SH8/Cloudbook ones for productivity work. There might be some advantage in moving to a 9" screen netbook and combining it with a MID but if the battery life is anything under the 5 hours I get with the Q1 Ultra with the 4-cell battery, it’s not even worth considering. A very stylish 1.8Ghz Silverthorne-based 6-hours battery life, 9" 1280×800 convertible touchscreen device with 3G built-in and a very fast 16GB flash drive at around $1200 and 1KG (A cheaper, lighter P1620 or V5) would be interesting to asses but moving up to anything bigger or more powerful would just be a waste of space, too heavy, lacking the touchscreen and would probably be too expensive. Considering that Silverthorne or Isaiah-based devices won’t be with us until well into the summer, the smartphone + high-end UMPC choice is the best for me right now so I’m seriously looking into an upgrade to the Q1 Ultra Premium. Kevin Tofel of jkOnTheRun has nothing but praise for the device so now that I’ve learned how to use the Q1 Ultra keyboard (I’m up to nearly 60% of my normal typing speed which is very fast for a thumboard) it makes perfect sense. I’ll be going for XP though as I don’t need the inking that was the deciding factor in Kevin’s choice of Vista. If I can find an importer and sell off a few of my older UMPCs and if nothing better turns up in the next few weeks, this is the route I’m going to persue.

But what is it that you people here want in your multi device strategy? The results of the poll indicate a similar two-device strategy amongst readers.

There’s an overwhelming desire for a UMPC (defined in the poll as UMPC = 5-7" slate/slider. Ghz-class) with over 50% of you wanting to combine it with a featurephone or smartphone. Interestingly only 16% of you want a MID in your strategy. 23% of you want a netbook in your strategy. Of course, the result doesn’t represent the general public’s view but it’s interesting to read some of the reasons why people made their own choices.

Kong writes: Currently I’m using a UMPC (the Flipstart) and a smartphone (an i-Mate SP3i with WM6). I would carry the phone with me all the time and the UMPC whenever I have a bag of some sort. Internet access on the UMPC is through the smartphone to save me from having multiple data contracts.

H-Man chooses a similar strategy but leaves out a productivity element in my opinion: Smartphone + UMPC - Vario III (Tytn2) for phone stuff, but also quick internet browsing and GPS (navigation) + Everun (with extended batt) as MID use: internet browing and email, plus music player. I could "downgrade" to a feature phone (but that must be a sexy one, with 3G and build-in modem). I really like all-in-one devices like smartphones/pda phones, but they do not have the screen-size you need for acceptable internet browsing. So for now I’ll stick with this combination.

cyte4til7 goes for the three device strategy and looks to replace his PMP and PocketPC with a MID: my phone criteria is very simple: the phone with the best reception. Beyond that my strategy would be: 1) A pocketable slider mid running linux that can handle PIM tasks and mp3s. aka replace my iPod and my Palm. 2) A flash-based mini-laptop with a 90-95% keyboard and linux (eee I drool over thee).

Rodfather explains his two-device strategy: iPhone, Fujitsu U810…So I guess I would fit in the feature phone + UMPC category. I use the Fujitsu all the time and work in 2 locations. So I dock the Fujitsu and remote desktop to my laptop at times. UMPC’s give me more flexibility with the touchscreen for taking notes during meetings. I have my Onenote files synced up with my desktop and work laptop with FolderShare so I can access my notes from anywhere.

Nate115 highlights pocketability: An Asus EEE 4G (running WinXP), a Dopod 838Pro (WinMo 6), and iPod Touch. No matter what, I always have the Dopod and Touch, since they’re pocketable. On days when I know I’ll be at my desk and doing paperwork, I lug around [a] big laptop. However, on the days when I’ll be away from my desk and may only need my device for surfing the net and checking emails, then I save my back and shoulders and take the EEE. In a later posts though, Nate115 mentions that a MID could be useful and makes a great comment about a single-device solution: If I could only make one choice (phone, MID, Netbook or smartphone), then it would smartphone all the way - I don’t think anyone can really live without a mobile phone anymore, and any chance to reduce the gadget count in one’s pockets is welcome in my opinion.

Reverendo highlights the fact that I didnt leave space for devices like the P1620 in my poll and Goes fo a high-end smartphone + high-end UMPC: A P1620 as mini-tablet and notebook substitute + an ultra-slim PDA-Phone with HSDPA which I would use as a modem for the 1620, fast entries and contact access, calls and quick notes (I’ve got my eyes set on the LG KS20). Maybe I wouldn’t even need the full functionality of a PDA-Phone… maybe a good, slim 3G Phone would do the trick (sth like the Samsung U900 SOUL).

Reverendo, I think this would be the sensible choice for me too in the future. A SE Xperia-like smartphone with that high-end convertible UMPC although I’d also add a cheap featurephone with good camera as my party companion. Until such time as my ideal mininote becomes a reality though, ill be sticking with my N82 + Q1 Ultra.

I’ve closed the poll in the forums now but feel free to continue to add your thoughts in the thread or here in the comments. The more we talk, the more we learn!

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Live photo-blogging with the Kohjinsha

Chippy — Mon, 22 Jan 2007 22:53:00 +0000

Here’s a quick post about mobile blogging with the Kohjinsha SA1 Ultra Mobile PC.

There’s ~~four~~ three things that I want to show in this blog.

How to do a high quality photo post to Flickr in 60 seconds.
How to do a mobile photo blog using LiveWriter
The typing experience on the SA1

In the videos below you will see me write the live section of this post (I ~~will~~ have posted this blog entry live during my video recording.)

———-LIVE SECTION STARTS HERE—————-

This is the Kohji SA1. I’m using it to demo near-live photo bloging. The keyboard is very small but i’ve got used to it now and can type with a fair rate of accuracy and a good speed. I also ike this you can thumb the keyboad.

————END of live blog ———————————-

Here’s the Flickr image

The quality of the video (below) is not great because I had to use a web cam to record the video but in it you can see the very quick post to flikr and, what I think is more interesting, the use of the Kohjinsha, the Canon, 3G connection and LiveWriter to edit and post a blog. The technology is nothing new but it demonstrates how low-power mobile computing ties it all together. The total weight of the hardware is about 2Kilos and the power drain is about 8w. The whole thing could be run from lightweight solar panels.

We’re forecast some cold weather here in the next week. If it starts snowing in the hills near me I’ll try and get out with the Kohji and a hip-flask to do some live work from the hills.

I’m also looking into getting one of these solar kits. Anyone had any experience with them? I’m guessing the 12W one would be good enough. I need it to be able to directly power the Kohji via some sot of regulator. Or is there a regulator built into all notebook charging circuits? More research needed here methinks!

The 9 min 64MB 640×480 wmv file is here

YouTube version below.

For more info on Digital Photography and blogging with a UMPC, take a look at my previous article about using a UMPC for digital photography.

Technorati tags: blogging, moblogging, photoblogging, umpc, kohjinsha, canon, digital photography

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Blocked Vista apps will affect most UMPCs

Chippy — Fri, 19 Jan 2007 23:47:00 +0000

It looks like many notebook and early UMPC owners will get blocked out of an unspecified amount of Vista software due to Microsoft’s definition of a capable PC.

The man of few words but many images, videos and lots of very good UMPC/Vista info, jkkmobile, has highlighted something very significant. Vista doesn’t let you run Movie Maker or DVD Maker on a UMPC when the hardware doesn’t meet Microsoft’s required specification. After testing it with jkk and others on four different UMPCs I now assume that if you don’t have WDDM drivers to achieve Premium Capable status, you don’t get the apps. This is what you will get if you run Movie Maker and DVD Maker on most UMPCs today.

Click to enlarge.

“Some features available in the premium editions of Windows Vista—like the new Windows Aero user experience—may require advanced or additional hardware.” [Microsoft. ref]

It looks like WMM and DVD maker have been designed for Vista Premium Capable PCs. [definition] and MS isn’t telling anyone. What a load of old &@##$. Just because there are some 3D effects in there it doesn’t mean everyone is going to want to use them. My last video was edited with Windows Movie Maker on a 533Mhz Geode processor with no DirectX support at all. Why do I suddenly need a certified DX9-capable graphics co-processor to do exactly the same thing? You can run the XP version of Movie Maker under Vista as a workaround but that’s not really the point is it. The problem applies to DVD maker too. When you dock the OQO Model 02 into its DVD dock and try to make and burn a short home video, you probably won’t be able to.

How many other programs will get blocked because a PC is not Vista Premium ready?

Do I still have to pay full price for Vista when there are disabled features in it? Is there a list of disabled features? I’m not asking for much to be honest. I run an Internet portal. I need a browser, ssh terminal, photo editor and a simple video production app. I’d also like to use media center and the excellent looking Origami Experience when i’m not working. The i7210 UMPC that I used daily as my only PC now won’t be able to process my videos after I upgrade. From the choice of 35 or so Ultra Mobile PCs I had yesterday, I’m now reduced to about 3. The Sony UX which I don’t like or the Fuji P1610 and Flybook V33i/V5. All of those options will cost cost me over $1500 and in fact none of them really fit my other UMPC requirements. I’m left with a choice of NONE. Not even the ASUS R2H, which looks to be running Vista quite nicely, will get the all-clear by MS so software will be blocked.

What’s even more annoying is that the chipset used on many of the Intel based UMPCs, the 915 with GMA900 graphics, supports Direct X 9 which satisfies the standard set by Microsoft. The problem here is that Intel obviously want people to move on and up (slightly) to the 945 chipset. The 915 has been end-of-lifed and what Intel says here pretty much confirms that they’re not going to create the drivers. OK, Intel want to move things on but they seem to have forgotten that the 915 chipset is part of Origami 2006 and still being used in new UMPCs. One of them was even announced at CES 2007. The new Samsung Q1P-SSD appears to come with Vista and an Intel 915 chipset (as far as I can tell.) Is this true? Will they release a new UMPC based on old hardware?

The issue of WDDM drivers was mentioned by Kevin Tofel way back when I had no real interest in Vista and it looks like he will never get his driver and will be blocked out of Aero, DVD Maker and Movie Maker. He’s spent many many hours testing Vista and getting it to work on his UMPC. I wonder how he feels.

The only ray of hope I’ve seen so far is a report on Mobility site from Oct ‘06 that says the Q1 was seen running Aero Glass. I wonder what chipset was in it. 945 perhaps? That already has WDDM drivers. Even Aero glass will work.

Lets not forget VIA in this matter. VIA chipsets are also in an unknown state. They don’t support DX9 in hardware at all so we can assume that they will never get WDDM drivers. It also looks like the Vista drivers and Media Center/Player software still don’t support the hardware acceleration of MEPG2/4 and WMV9 that’s in the VIA chipset. This is still to be confirmed by VIA so we’ll talk about that issue another time.

I was really happy to see the ASUS R2H running Vista today but this issue is really taking the shine off it. There is no other OS solution that has the UMPC-support that Vista does but I’m now reluctant to upgrade because I’ll loose apps and risk getting blocked from others. What’s the answer?

Steve.

Thanks to Matt, jkk and Raoul

Technorati tags: vista, intel, microsoft, problem, umpc

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24-hr battery life is possible today.

Chippy — Fri, 19 Jan 2007 21:44:00 +0000

Last August I did a quick overview and a few calculations on the OLPC battery life using some stats that were lying around. I calculated 10 hours battery life.

I was wrong. According to a Linux Today report quoting Michalis Bletsas, Chief Connectivity Officer for the OLPC project, the MAXIMUM drain on the OLPC is 5W. The minimum active-OLPC drain is an incredible 350mw. If you sat down with the OLPC to read an e-book in black and white mode, you’d have a good 24 hours before you’d have to get the Yo-Yo charging unit out. I guess, you could actually put a solar panel on the back of it and it would charge enough during the day to last all night. It would never ever run out of power.

Lets compare this to the what I believe is the most power-efficient notebook PC in the world - The Kohjinsha SA1.

The Kohjinsha uses a 30w/hour battery and will run a pretty impressive 3.5 hours playing a movie and if you use it as an e-book you’ll get over 5 hours with the WiFi off. While browsing, you get up to 4 hours which equates to about 8W drain. The OLPC uses about 1/3 of that power in the same scenario.

How?

Well, its using a 377Mhz AMD Geode processor for a start. A slightly lower-performance version of the 533Mhz one that’s in the Kohjinsha, the Pepper Pad 3 and the Raon Digital Vega. It also has a very efficient WiFi radio and a flash drive too but the main reason for the low-power drain is the screen. It really is an amazing bit of kit. If you haven’t read about it yet, take a look here. In summary its got two modes. An active backlit mode that drains about 1W (compared to 3-5W on a UMPC) and a non-backlit transflective (requires ambient light) mode in black and white that drains about 0.1W (zero point one.)

Its a ray of light for UMPC users and shows just what is possible.

Here’s one scenario to ponder. Who’s going to be first in line to use some of the technology? What if that organisation creates a slick new design, an efficient ‘thin’ software layer and tacked on a few million of these onto the production run? What if they dedicated a top bar to contextual advertising? With a life of 5 years, it might just pay for that organisation to give them away free. Did you know that Google are a major partner in the OLPC project? Bring on the Google Switch Mesh!

Via OLPCNews

Steve

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How fast is your mobile text input?

Chippy — Fri, 19 Jan 2007 14:43:00 +0000

Pocketables have posted a nice detailed piece about DialKeys and the TIP (Touch/Tablet PC input panel.) There are some nice tips in there but what caught my eye were Jenn’s typing speed co-efficient’s. I know it sounds rather boring but its important. Pay attention please because when I list all the figures in order, it makes interesting reading. To some people. Maybe.

Here are all the typing speed co-efficients that I know about at the moment. Its not many but its a start. What I’d like you all to do is to submit your own if you have time. I’ll record the data and create a big list of UMPC-related input mechanisms which will allow potential customers to understand the limits of each input type. I think that’s going to be something useful, interesting and a good reference for keyboard designers, software and hardware alike.

Here’s what we have already from fastest to slowest.

Full size desktop keyboard - CE 1
Eleksen Fabric Keyboard - 0.6 (chippy)
Kohjinsha SA1 UMPC (keyboard) - 0.55 (chippy)
PepperPad 3 (split thumbboard) 0.5 (chippy) 0.54 (jenn)
Medion & Gigabyte 0.42 (chippy)
Sony UX (keyboard) - 0.37 (jenn)
OQO Model 01 (keyboard) - 0.34 (jenn)
i7210 + On screen keyboard (TIP) - CE 0.3 (chippy)
DialKeys on Samsung Q1 - 0.27 (jenn)

Its certainly not conclusive yet so please contribute. Here’s the easy test method I used.

Take your normal desktop keyboard and using your fave editor, time yourself typing “The quick brown fox jumped over the lazy dog” 5 times. Its 220 characters long (not including CR/LF) (220/secs*60) = characters per minute (CPS)
Do exactly the same with a different input method. Calculate CPS.

Result 2 / Result 1 = speed co-efficient of the alternative input method.

Other methods will work as long as you do the same for test 1 and test 2.

Repeat with another device (to fade!) and publish the results or times on your blog. Place the link in the comments for that threaded SEO effect that we all like so so much! I’ll also place your link in the results table when I create the page/database table of results. Alternatively, post the results directly on the comments or via the contact form.

Please state whether you have trained or not on the alternative input method.

What I’d like to see are Blackberries, PDA’s, Speech input and handwriting recognition (that one will vary wildly!) and any other method you can think off. When I have enough results I’ll publish a nice table and graphic.

Get typing, tapping and talking!

Here’s a mobilitybeat and digg link as this post is probably worth promoting to get as much feedback as possible.

Technorati tags: keyboard, input, TIP, dialkeys, UMPC

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More hints on UMPC 2007 sales forecasts.

Chippy — Thu, 18 Jan 2007 12:15:00 +0000

My new estimate for 2007 UMPC sales: 700,000 units.

Yesterday in the Computex website I read that ASUS were expecting to ship 10,000 R2H units per month in 2007. The R2H is currently one of, if not the, most popular UMPC on the planet so that gives us a big hint about sector-wide sales in 2007.

Now consider this statistic from DigiTimes:

VIA’s shipments of the CPUs and chipsets to OQO this year will allow the US vendor to roll out 40,000 UMPCs

That doesn’t quite mean that 40,000 OQO’s will be sold this year but its close. We’re starting to get a picture of the market. I previously estimated a max 500,000 UMPC units to ship in 2007.

Here’s my prediction for 2006, based on the stats I’ve seen (there isn’t many) and cross calculating from notebook sales figures and smartphone sales figures, I’d say we’re looking at global sales of around 500,000 UMPC units in 2006 using the ~~correct~~ current sales channels ad maybe 1 million if they get into cellular carriers hands.

I don’t think that’s far off the mark. Here’s another rough/guesstimate calculation based on all that I’ve read, studied and heard. (UMPC = all devices on the Carrypad product portal.)

ASUS R2H. 120,000
Samsung Q1 all models 120,000
Medion UMPC (including Arima OEM sales under other brands) 120,000 [guess. Could be a big seller.]
OQO 02 30,000
Sony UX 80,000
Nokia N800 50,000
Others (through VARS, vertical markets) 150,000

Total in 2007 - approx 700,000 units.

Sounds quite a lot doesn’t it? Its not. Its about 0.35 of one percent of the global ~~notebook~~ PC market if I got my maths correct. (assumption: 200 million ~~notebooks~~PCs are sold every year.)

This doesn’t include hi-end smartphones such as the Athena, Omni, E90 rumors.

Instat said 8M by 2011 so that would indicate that the market will just about double every year.

As I see stats during 2007 I’ll try and update the figures. It would be fun to split that 700,000 units across Intel and VIA. Gut feeling is that Intel will take the majority in the early part of the year but VIA will take the majority in the second half. Depends on weather the VIA-based Asus UMPC rumor is true and whether Intel get their finger out and start shipping the new ULV processors. [report on Intel low power CPU's here.]

Any UMPC product/marketing/sales managers watching? Don’t use these figures. They are my guestimates. On the other hand, if you get a big bonus because of my stats, drop me a line and i’ll give you my PayPal details!

Steve.

Technorati tags: umpc, sales, instat

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Enderle on Origami vs iPhone marketing is way off-the-mark.

Chippy — Tue, 16 Jan 2007 11:48:00 +0000

I respect Rob Enderle’s experience in product development and marketing but it doesn’t mean I have to agree with him does it. This article that compares the iPhone launch to the Origami launch is something I don’t agree with. The title has a question mark in it for a start (always a bad sign,) and the content is just too fuzzy. ‘Link bait’ comes to mind when I look at it.

Rob says that iPhone is “the Origami done right?” and he goes one to talk about what appears to be marketing/PR related issues and what Origami did wrong (which is interesting because I thought that the Enderle group was involved with the Origami product before it launched. I could be wrong though.)

There’s nothing that really justifies the comparison of the Origami and iPhone products, marketing or launches that Rob has made. Sure, people can learn a lot from the iPhone launch but its nothing to do with Origami.

iPhone: In-house controlled design, development and marketing of a voice and PMP product that you keep with you all the time. Development of an existing product group with historical sales figures. 1st year (2007-2008) sales targets: about 10 million? Subsidised sales model. Highly targeted audience. (Non business. iPod-generation.)
Origami: Specifications and guidelines for a mini-PC that’s mobile. Completely new product group. First year (2006) sales target: about 0.5? No subsidy. Multiple models. Multiple designs. Multiple manufacturers. Multiple user types. (Consumer and business)

These are two completely separate processes, products and markets. No comparison of launches is really possible.

OK Let me go back and read it again just in case I’m getting all emotional about someone attacking UMPCs…

No. I still think he’s wrong. And the article doesn’t really provide any decent arguments either.

This paragraph doesn’t make sense at all…

The iPhone, in concept, hits on almost all of the notes that Origami missed. It prices in at under $600 (granted with a 2 year cell phone commitment), is relatively small, has integrated WAN, and they figured out that by using Synaptics’ technology they could make a touch screen keyboard work. The iPhone’s interface is simple (even though the OS is based on OSX) and they did a great job of eliminating the complexity (in effect they completed where Microsoft didn’t).

The iPhone is probably more expensive than an Origami device (the iPhone is subsidised.) WAN was never part of Origami spec probably because during 2005 everything was 2.5G and technically WWAN was quite an expensive thing to do. Subsidising it through a carrier would have been impossible too. Try to convince Vodafone to subsidise a suite of UMPC products when the worldwide target market for all products is under 1 million. They will probably laugh at you. And what the *&%^$ does ‘relatively small’ mean. UMPCs are far smaller ’relative’ to PCs than the iPhone is ‘relative’ to a normal mobile phone. Regarding the interface - The Origami interface was never meant to be simple - Windows XP was the specification. The target market wouldn’t have wanted a new interface. Quick learning curve and interface familiarity were important.

Nobody knows if Origami was wrong yet. Even if everyone in the world has an iPhone I still believe that the Origami concept would be a sound one. The game is not over for Origami just because iPhone is here and playing on Center Court against HTC, Moto and Nokia. Origami is playing a different game in a different place to a different crowd.

This diagram might help to explain what I mean. Its something I made in Feb 2006 to prove to myself that there is no possibility of converging everything on one device. You see that the iPhone (lets put it in the 4″ bracket) and UMPC (I called it a Carrypad back then) fit into two different categories. See how the functionality differs. There’s quite a number of differentiators there. Browsing, quality video, TV/IP, video conferencing, games, note creation, emails. (Click to get PDF)

If Jobs had launched this…

Credit: Engadget

…then the Rob Enderle comparison would be valid. But he didn’t. So maybe MS weren’t so stupid after all. I think Rob spotted that at the end of his article. There’s a new opportunity forming.

Microsoft probably made a good choice to pull back on Origami marketing when they got the feedback from Amtek and Samsung that the 7″, keyboardless, 2 hour UMPC was a bit difficult to sell and when they realised that perhaps the hardware was not mature enough. Apple are going to throw a lot of money into convincing people that they need the mobile Internet. When people start to get get pissed off with trying to browse ad-rich Web2.0 sites on a 480-wide screen with no keyboard there will be space and a chance for someone to step in with 5-7″ keyboarded modular PC’s (Rob already identified that modular computing is a winner) with super-efficient x86 processors, better graphics processors and the huge choice of application that Vista, Linux or even OSX will offer. It might just be that Jobs does that in 12 months time of course and then MS will be in trouble but they still have a little time. And Vista.

Steve.

Technorati tags: iphone, umpc, apple, vista, marketing, modular computing

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Communicator sub-UMPCs.

Chippy — Fri, 05 Jan 2007 21:22:00 +0000

The S-Xgen is going to be launched at CES in just a few days. They are entering a tough market and although they mention UMPCs in their marketing, its the communicator phone segment that’s going to be the battleground for them. I’ve got a few opinions about devices in that business-user market.

If you had to choose between these two would you choose the S-XGen or the HTC Athena?

I know what I’d choose. its all in the screen size for me. The bigger browsing space wins every time because I’ll be accessing most of my applications through it.

On the left you have 4″ 470 x 280 on the right 5″ 640×480. Its literally a huge difference. Over twice the number of screen pixels.

They both run Windows Mobile and have hard drives (20 vs they both have keyboards and integrated 3G.

There’s only the price to consider and guess what, when I walk into a Vodafone shop and see the Athena at 350 Euro on a 2 year contract, I’m probably going to make the final decision there and then.

The S-Xgen will probably only be available in the US too. I can’t imagine them going through RoHS and CE certifications, translations and setting up multi-lingual sales and support processes. The market isn’t big enough for that. HTC already have it in place.

The other non-windows options are the Nokia E90 (rumor) or the ROAD. These two are in the same segment at the $1200+ mark. The ROAD ‘Handy PC’ is a German product and may not cross over into the US market.

This sector of the phone market is going to become more important as sensible data contracts start to kick in and browser access becomes more critical for end users. My feeling is that anything under 640 pixels wide in this category doesn’t really stand a chance.

Technorati tags: S-Xgen, communicator, smartphone

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