Looks like MS is finally going to make the Origami project/platform official on the 3rd March.

Origami will define a new breed of devices that are closely matching the CarryPad requirements.
I'm happy about this. Not because we're going to get some mini XP devices that we can use in cars, bed and on the sofa, but becuase it's going to light-up this whole genre of PC's and spur other developers into moving up a gear. Nokia for sure will be thinking about releasing info on its updated Intenet Tablet (770) i'm sure. Pepperpad will be thinking about price reductions and OQO might be getting worried!

Microsoft buzzword - Origami.
5-7" handhelds/handtops.
Full XP (means disk, memory etc.)
No keyboard. No thumboard. Maybe mini keyboard covers wil be optional? I dont know.
500-800 Euro. Could be closest thing yet to my carrypad spec.

Some references:

http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/news/13977129.htm

http://www.origamiproject.com

Hopefully we'll hear a lot more at Cebit.

Steve.

update: 2nd March: The docked-version of that origami carrypad looks nice. Its the first picture i've seen of an origami mock-up with keyboard.

One of the reasons for the massively quick turnaround in mobile phone hardware was (and still is) due to the pay-as-you-go method of hardware purchase. Basically, you get a new bit of hardware every 1-2 years subsidised by the operator. Its worked very well at getting old hardware out of the market and getting new stuff in with more value-add (sales) built in.

The Carrypad could also use this model too and i'm quite suprised that there's been no succesful effort yet by a VOIP provider to team with someone like Pepperpad.
Of course, Nokia would be a great choice but I can imagine that approaching Nokia as a voip company would be very very difficult. Despite their apparent openness to VOIP. Maybe the voip market is all tied-up now. There's not much room for new players, no big margins and to be honest, its not very exciting and 'new' for the average user.

However, if we look beyond VOIP to Video over IP, that would be nice! Maybe skype could offer a free Nokia next-gen 770 with a Skype video contract? My only problem with this is that Video telephony is a very fragmented technology. There are so many 'solutions' out there that interoperability could be a major stopping point.

One 'fresh' and well-standardised (relatively speaking) area and one seemingly part of the next big marketing push is looking like 'live TV'. Unfortunately for the operators, live TV over 3G networks doesnt look like its really going to take off due to b/w requirements and/or cost and they're all looking at DVB-H and DMB methods. Bit thats no bad thing really. I'm not convinced that ISP's and mobile operators can afford to offer TV over IP in the near future. Its such a massive investment in head-ends and the time and cost of streaming rights negotiation, that i cant see many people getting involved.
Whether it be over DVB-H or DMB reciver, or over internet though, a Carrypad seems much better specified to offer the user a respectable viewing experience. The opportunity seems simple enough - a Carrypad needs to be developed with a DVB-H or DMB receiver in it, an S-Video output and offered for next to nothing with a TV contract.

Maybe in the future, our TV reveiver will actually be our Carrypad. With a high bandwidth bluetooth-like technology, you could actually send the TV signal to your big screen tv, projector (or broadcast it locally) wirelessly. I can imagine people sitting on the sofa doing all sorts of live voting, quiz and video-cam events on the TV. Oh the horror of it all!!

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Conversing with some other mini-pc heads today I came up with this list of extra capabilities.

Speech recognition.
It takes a fair bit of CPU power to do speech recognition. I personally dont see this taking off though. Speech recognition has been around for a while on desk pc's but I dont see a load of people really talking madly into microphones. And people certainly wont do it in social scenarios.

Built in scanner.
This could be a good one. I know of a Java aplet that allows cameraphone users to read bar coded URLS. If one could read the bar codes on food, link to a live database and get all the nutritional info somehow. Or even scan a product and see if its available somewhere else for cheaper.
Advanced scanning with OCR could be useful in certain situations but it needs a decent application before its worth having.

Projector.
Here's one for the next 5-10 years. Built-in laser projectors. Just imagine projecting a film on the wall from your mobile! Wooh!

Games.
Games have been mentioned before but to be honest, I didnt give them the priority they deserve. A decent games-playing mini pc could potentially be good. There's certainly a market for them but displacing the established products would be very hard.

Video telephony over IP.
Here's one that could be good. Currenly video calls over 3G networks are very expensive. If a big voip provider started handing out mini tablets with cheap audio and video telephony contracts, it might be a way to subsidise the cost of the tablet. I like this idea a lot.

Live TV.
Live TV over DVB-H and DMB is on its way. Watching it on a nice 5" screen will be much more fun than on a mobile. Again, there's a way to subsidise the cost of those tablets with a DVB-H contract from your local provider. It might not have to be DVB either. Could be live TV over internet.
Again, I like this idea. Maybe it can be combined with the Video/Voice over IP solution. That would mean someone like Sky/Easynet (in the UK) being able to knock out some cheap tablet products.

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Previously I mentioned a number of devices I thought were looking good in the Carrypad space.
Full reviews are all over the internet so I don't need to do this again but it would be interesting to see if anyone has hit the right specification yet.


OQO.
Technicaly, this one is nearest the mark. Size-wise its perfect. Its got the keyboard and the screen right. Apart from GPS, the communications devices are perfect. These guys know there's no competition and thats why its priced at 1600-1800 Euros!! One thing thats probably put this price up is the Windows XP software and the 512MB min requirement for memory. This seems overkill to me.

Pepperpad.
This is a better match in theory although the keyboard is way to simple. Its a thumbpad job. The unit is also too big. Would probably fell like holding a etch-a-sketch. However, the rest of the spec is spot on. Good performance Xscale processor. Linux operating system (could attract a lot of open-source porting of software)

Nokia 770.
I got very excited about this device to start with. The screen and connectivity options looked perfect. Until you find out that its got a rather weak ARm-compatible Ti-Omap that doesnt look like it will get about 500kbps of divx, let alone the 1mbps needed for a reasonable 320x240 25fps experience. No keyboard and no pim software too. The 350 Euro price tells us something about where its marketed and that could be that its a test-device. Nokia have already announced that they might release new hardware with a keyboard. If they address the processor issues, they could be spot on. I've recently read about Naviflash - a commerical Navigation product built on Linux over Xscale so there's potential even for decent nav software.
Fingers crossed for this one. For me its Nokia against Apple at the moment.

Flybook.
More a mini-laptop than anything else. Its a nice device but its too big and again its running windows XP (or Linux I guess) and it needs 512MB ram. Its as expensive as the OQO and too big for our specs too.

Sony U50
Way way too expensive but they've got that lifestyle factor right. Missing is the keyboard but for that price, I dont think theyre interested in the mass-market that we're talking about for the Carrypad.

Dualcore.
This again seems to be a niche product. Dual-boot with two processors. I'm not sure really where they're aiming at here. Its even got mobile radios built in (GSM and GPRS) so I dont expect this to go anywhere near Carrypad territory.

Sharp Zaurus SL range.
More a pocket-pc with keyboard than a carrypad. The Zaurus SL range runs a Linux operating system with the recent models using an ARM-based processor. The Zaurus is currently only available in Japan. The disadvantages are: small 4" screen, 640x480 screen size in the latest models and a 400mhz Xscale processor. Its in the category of pocketpc-with-keyboard in my opinion and with the small screen and processor, doesnt really reach into carrypad territory.

Vulcan Flipstart.
This one looks pretty cool. Specification-wise it looks to match up to OQO territory. So that means Windows XP and the full memory and processor requirements of the operating system. As I write, this device is not available and there's no pricing yet.

And thats it at the moment.
Nothing actually matches up to the Carrypad specification yet. Everything is either too big (pepperpad, flybook), too over spec'd (OQO, Flipstart, flyboox, U50, Dualcore) or too under spec'd (770, Zaurus.)
Keep an eye on Nokia though. My money is on them to come up with the first Carrypad device!

Software starts at the operating system.

On offer we have the following:

• Symbian S60 and S90
• MS Win CE and Tablet PC.
• Linux

I have a feeling that S60 and S90 spec aren't going to support the screen requiments and considering the processors we have at hand (Basically the Xscale, Epia, Transmeta bracket) we're going to be mainly looking at WinCE and Linux. Even Nokia themselves used linux in their 770 - a carrypad type device.

Apart from GPS navigation on Linux, they both look like having similar capabilities.
Linux has the advantage of a mass of developers, WinCE has the advantage of money and access to processor designs and specifications.

My first conclusion is that if Xscale is the most suited processor (considering power requirements) then WinCE is going to have the performance advantage because of MS-Intel relationships. With Xscale/WinCE, the USB and Bluetooth support could also be more stable.

Some users are going to want to use their Digital Rights Managed media too and there again, you have to be looking at MS.

Linux however could keep the cost down. With no licensing costs, more money can be spent on hardware. Its also arguable that there's a wider range of software for the user too.

One family of operating system I havent mentioned yet is Apple. These guys could be extremely well positioned to make a Carrytop PC. They have access to Intel processors now and buiding a lounge product could fit very well into their portfolio. Given their current marketing and brand power, they could also reach the economies of scale to push multi-million Xscale processor based carrytops out the door at the right price.

As far as applications go, well we've pretty much listed all that before.
It ranges from email clients to media players. In fact, if you take the average pocket PC, add navigation, voice over IP, an RSS reader and you have pretty much all the software elements you need.

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From what I posted earlier, lets summarise the carrypad:

Its a device for these locations:
Sofa, Bed, Coffee Shop, Car, Train, Plane etc.

Its indentifying features are:
Advanded-intermediate output - (5"-7" screen, min 800x480, total size - DVD cover.)
Advanced-intermediate input - (mini qwerty keyboard)

It is the parent of the smartphone (although a potential user of the smartphone long-range data capabilities)

It is the offspring of the pc.

It performs video well (min 320x240, 24fps, 1000kbps, full screen - Approx 620mhz advanced processor (Xscale seems well suited at this stage)

It needs to be a standalone device. If you dont have your phone with you (unlikely) or its battery is flat, you need many of the functions of the smartphone (except long-range radio services like GSM, GPRS, UMTS)
The camera doesnt fit here but a videoconferencing camera would.
Storage should be a step up from the mobile. Minimum 10GB I would say as it needs to be a media playback device and possibly a photo upload and basic editing tool.
Wifi is a must here as its target locations would all potentialy contain wifi as the primary broadband connectivity option.
Bluetooth is a must as it would be use to communicate with a number of local devices (headphones, data gateways, printers etc.)
Battery longevity is also a must here although we're not concerned with 5+ hours. More the 2-3 hours mark.
Docking/Wall mounting is needed for the cool-factor in the lounge/bedroom.
Price - above high-level pocket pc and below mid-level laptops. Puts it at the 800 Euro mark at the moment but when the pocket pc market crashes, they will drop into the 400-600 range.
Normal wired connectivity options will include USB2.0, SPDIF out, Headphones. mic in and SDIO.
Consumer IR should provide device control capability.
I'm not sure about GPS but given that this device could be a CE or S60 operating system, a GPS device would make good sense. I dont see a linux-based system needing a GPS. Nvagation data will never be public domain. (Think about traffic data.)
Touch-screen or programmable touch-pad areas are needed for in-car and photo editing.

and next, the software.....

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Bed, sofa, car, toilet, plane, train, and ship.

This is where the carrypad comes in then. Its not a belt or pocket device. In fact, the pocket device has pretty much died. All the ground that it covered (apart from video) has gone to mobile phones. However, becuase of that, its opened up that middle ground for the carrypad.

Of course, i'm not the first to think about this am i.

Here's a few examples of devices nearing the carrypad mark.

• OQO
• Nokia 770
• Flybook
• Dualcor PC
  
• Sony Vaio U-Series
  
• Pepperpad
  

These range in price from 350 to over 2000 Euro and only a couple of them have proper keyboards. This is dissapointing.

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Before we look further at mini-micro tablets/pc's lets think about some places we use our mobile devices:

Walking
Bus
Car
Bed
Sofa
Coffee shop
Meeting room
Office

If I analyse the places I use my devices - i find that bed and sofa are recent additions and are becoming very popular, enjoyable and easy places to do a lot of everyday technology activities. Think about it. SMS, TV, Browsing. I have a pocket PC and these things are actually possible. Howver, that same pocketPC is extremely inneficient for the reasons i've talked about before (input constrictions mainly.) I rarely use my laptop at home. its just too big and takes too long to power up and well, its very expensive to keep a laptop knocking round just to read emails and check the TV listings. If I leave it on the sofa, someone is going to knick it too.

I've got 'walking, bus' covered by my mobile.
I've got 'Meeting rooms and Office' covered by a laptop

There's the third device requirement popping out now - Sofa, Bed, Car.
I tell you - this is mini-tablet/micro laptop territory. The proudct group with no definition. We need a new definition here:

sofapod, stylepod, stylepad, lifepad, lifepod, midipod, midipad, intermidi. Mmm. Those names are all to obvious.
Lets try Carrypad. Yeah we'll call it the carry-pad.

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Take a look at that list of devices again.

You have a pocketPC and a Mini tablet/micro laptop.
You could go for the pocket PC as the next step. It would certainly handle the video side of things (with a 3.5" screen and a video output.) But remember that the mobilephone device is missing advanced-intermediate input (emails, docs, blogs, real-time IM) so, with the pocket PC, you're only going to satisfy one more requirement.

We're also missing a device with Advanced output - (long-term video, browsing, doc creation) - 5-7" (say 800x480) and advanced input.

Think think think again. A pocket PC isnt really going to cut it here. The overlap with the mobile device is too great. The only extra functionality you get is: 3.5" screen but you get no extra input mechanism.

So, take the next step up - what do you get? We're talking about needing a 5-7" screen for long-term video and a mini qwerty keyboard. We're into Mini Tablet and mini laptop territory. This is a blurred category of devices. Lets take a deeper look.

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A nice venn diagram would show us exactly where we can put all our technologies.
I've done that here at home but the results are simpler to show in text form.

We start with our mobile device. We want everything possible on this device and we have a device no bigger than 3" with a numeric or thumb keypad so you can forget video and decent input mechanisms. Efficient browsing is also out of the question.

You can put the following on your mobile phone device:
Mobile phone voice
Mobile phone non real-time Instant Messaging (SMS/MMS)
Calendar
Contacts
Reminders/To-do
Digital Camera (2mp with good optics is the entry point for useable photos)
Document storage (local, up to 4gb today.)
Music playing/recording.
Simple video clip recording/playback.
GPS navigation.
Device control - (Consumer infra red) (although I havent seen this on many phones)
Data gateway. (Bluetooth with GPRS/UMTS is the most sensible choice but wifi is also bossible.)

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Before we migrate all our technologies on to the mobile phone, i'm going to put another parameter in the mix - Physical constraints.
That is, for each function, are there any physical contraints to be applied. The simple example is - input. Its the holy grail of mobile devices, getting an efficient input mechanism to work on a small scale. And up to now, no one has achieved it.
Thats why we now have a range of input mechanisms. From voice to thumb. Lets list the physical constraints here:

Basic input (SMS and short emails - non real-time) = numberpad
Intermediate input (emails, blogs, notes, tasks, calendar, IM) = thumbpad
Advanced-intermediate (emails, docs, blogs, IM) - mini qwerty keyboard for two-finger typing on stable surface.
Advanced input - (everything) Normal qwerty keyboard.
Other inputs - voice, projected keyboard - not yet proved useable.

Basic output - (SMS, notifiers, small emails, WAP) = basic 2" screen
intermediate output - (emails, notes, vid clips, small pics, simple navigation) = hi-def 2" screen (say, 176x208 pixels)
Advanced-intermediate output - (video, document reading, low-level browsing, advanced navigation) = hi-def 3.5" screen (say 320x240)
Advanced output - (long-term video, browsing, doc creation) - 5-7" (say 800x480)
Best output - (all methods) - Normal PC screen.

Interesting to note that advanced browsing requires more screen size than video despite videos containg many more times more information. (A picture is really worth a thousand words)

As for physical contraints, i think thats about it. Lets assume we dont have to carry aerials, spare batteries and cables with us.

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The functions mentioned before need to sit on a device. Ideally just one device.
Buit today, we use many different devices.
Here's a list of portable device categories we have in use today along with a guideline size (smallest first) and an example device.

Mobile Phone (3") - E.g. Nokia 6280
Smartphone (3") - e.g. Nokia N70, HTC Tornado
Pocket PC (4") - E.g. DELL Axim
Mini Tablet (5-9") - E.g. Nokia 770
Mini laptop (10-12") - E.g. OQO
Tablet (8-15") - E.g. Pepperpad + Windows tablets
Laptop (12-17") - Many variants from 1kg-3kg. Many examples.
Desktop PC - All sizes!

One of those devices is becoming the 'always-there' device and a lot of technologies are migrating towards it. The mobile phone. (including the smartphone)

What we want is to put the most functionality on the 'always-there' device. By doing that we get the most functionality with us as much of the time as possible. That makes sense to me.

I want to make a short note about the smartphone/pocketpc combo device. Its a sub-segment of phones that have bigger screens and often thumboards. I'm not ignoring these devices, I just see them as a specialist device aimed at the business user. Besides, you'll see in my later posts that even these devices cant really offer complete convergence.

The title sounds a bit technical but all it means is: whats the most technology functionality you can possibly have on the thoeretical device. The perfect 'all-in-one' device.

Check the date of this post becuase things could change very quickly.

Basically, its everything you use a PC for:
Writing (doc emails blogs websites)
Calculations
Real-time chat (electronic)
Talking (live phone)
Recording (storing voice/image)
Creating (imaging, music,)
Location Guidance (gps based routing and location/timetable information)
Reference (public and personal document access)
Connectivity - Access to common data/voice networks. Device control.
Syncronisation - If you cant do it on one device - you need to sync!


Thats a lot of categories that translate into the following common functions:

Mobile phone voice
Mobile phone IM (SMS/MMS)
Calendar
Contacts
Reminders/To-do
Digital Camera
Document creation (typing)
Document retrieval (doc reading)
Document storage (local)
Music playing/recording
Video playing/recording
GPS navigation
Web browsing
Email creation
IM Chat.

..and the following common connectivity methods:
GSM,GPRS (2G), UMTS (3G), Wifi variants, Bluetooth, IR
I'm going to leave out WiMax for the time being.

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The simple fact is that you'll never get everything on one device. It wont happen until we evolve better eyes and smaller fingers.

You cant watch a video for any length of time on anything under 3.5" across.
You cant type at an efficient speed on anything less than a mini-qwerty keyboard.

So why bother trying to cram it all in to one device? i guess the marketing people can answer that question and its probably something to do with customer perception.
If you do buy the all-in-one device though, I can guarantee you wont get the best out of it.

I'll go into a few details in the next post about what I consider the optimal convergence to be and what 'all-in-one' means. Some convergence is definately possible but becuase of device overlaps, physical constraints and a tendency for many technologies to evolve towards the smartphone, a new device segment is being created.

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