This is the forth report on key trends in PCs below 12” screen size appearing in the German market through the popular price comparison engine, Geizhals.at . (Based on SKUs, not model families.) The last one was done in November 2009

In this report you’ll see the big jump in numbers coming from the new Pinetrail devices. Below the graphs I highlight some key numbers.

Number of SKUs in the market.

The big jump in numbers is clear to see from the top graph. Total numbers jumped by 115 with Pinetrail making up a large portion of that number. A bigger trend I’m seeing is the introduction of 1366×768 displays. Nearly all of the 101 devices with hi-res screens have appeared in 2010.

Other ‘trends’ that are clear from the data provided in the comparison engine:

• 78% of the devices are running on Intel Atom. Remember that the segment includes some devices running laptop-grade CPUs. This is not just an analysis of netbooks.
• The percentage of devices in the 10% segment dropped but the number of devices still rose.
• There were percentage increments in the 5”, 8”, 9” (ipad) segments. Previous reports showed decline in these segments.
• Only 5% of the devices are offered with Linux.
• There’s a 3:2 ratio of Glossy to Matt screens.
• Only 10% of the devices weigh 1KG or less.
• Very few Nvidia ION devices have reached the market. Only 3% include the ION option and all of these are ION V1. Devices with Pinetrail + ION are expected in the next snapshot so this number should increase.
• The cheapest device (based on lowest price offered) is still the Hercules E-Cafe EC800 is more expensive now – 183 Euros (up from 151) but the cheapest Intel Atom netbook isn’t far behind at only 188 Euros. (lowest price.)

One thing I note every time I do this is that there are a lot of end-of-life PCs still being offered. For example, the EeePC 701 is still hanging around. It’s difficult to measure but it looks like up to 100 of the devices in the market are remnants.

When we look again in June I expect we’ll see a much smaller increase in numbers. The first ION2 devices will appear though and if the ‘tablets’ and MIDs start flowing into the market as promised, we should see growth, albeit very small,  in the sub 1KG and sub 10” segments with a corresponding increase in non-Windows numbers.

For customers wanting full desktop PC capability in their hand, 2010 will be a frustrating year where you’ll see a lot of game-changing news, and very few products based on it.

On the positive side, Vista has been replaced by Windows 7, a much more efficient operating system that supports HD video decoding on the GMA500, native H.264 support, better tablet features and advanced networking. With fast SSD’s dropping in price we should see some exciting and capable devices based on this OS. On the negative side, Windows 7 is not as efficient as Windows XP and requires more memory, more processing and more storage at a time where platform performance will remain static. Intel’s Menlow, the only platform for advanced, long-battery-life UMPCs, will enter it’s third year of production but continue to be the only UMPC platform choice. Windows 7 will only be an option for high quality UMPCs and that could mean rising prices.

Moorestown, Intel’s next generation mobile computing platform is not expected to make an impact for UMPCs based on its unique position of (initially) being a Moblin-only platform. Moblin will develop of course and the release of version 2.1 for handhelds will be an interesting one that might reach across the Menlow platform. As Moblin for handhelds reaches launch, we will get a feel for it’s intended position in the market. We’re expecting a dynamic consumer focus rather than the productivity focus that UMPCs users want but this is a flexible OS and adding productivity components should be relatively easy, especially if the Intel application store takes off. A version of Moorestown that supports Windows will be announced in 2010 and it will allow UMPCs running desktop operating systems to shrink another 20% while gaining another 20% battery life but products using this may not appear in 2010. They could also be focused at the embedded market which puts a question-mark over price and small production runs for UMPCs.

Based on this awkward and risky matrix of old and new hardware and operating systems we expect the number of Windows-based UMPCs to drop and the advances in performance and battery life to be less dramatic compared to 2009. Expensive, highly targeted options will continue to appear (the newly announced Fujitsu UH900 is one example) and low-cost options will continue to find sales in Asia. We will see continued small-scale improvements with efficiency and better industrial design but we should not expect anything like the battery life advances we saw in 2009. Moblin-based UMPCs on the Menlow platform may appear which won’t offer any battery life savings but may allow manufacturers to offer low-end consumer-focused models in order to try and stimulate the market.

Screen technology (E.g. Pixel Qi) could make an impact and improve battery life (10-20% in normal use) but we only expect this to reach high-end UMPCs in 2010. We should also see the first capacitive touchscreens on Windows-based UMPCs in 2010. This will be driven by the multi-touch capabilities in Windows 7 and again, will only reach high-end UMPCs.

As Android stabilizes, matures, grows to support multiple screen sizes, starts to sell in significant numbers and attracts productivity-focused application developers, the operating system will become a valid productivity option. We see it scaling well to the 5-7″ screen and offering manufacturers a new choice for their productivity focused personal computers. The ‘power-gated’ platform (Intel terminology) that is already used by ARM-based platforms, is the only way forward for efficient, always-on’ handheld devices and until Moorestown is released, it gives the ARM-based designs a big advantage with battery life, active standby and weight. Maemo won’t be a serious contender in 2010 as it will focus on it’s development and transition towards Maemo 6. Look to 2011 for productivity-focused, large-format Maemo devices.

Unfortunately the platform that Maemo and Android runs on still needs to progress to the next generation before it can offer the processing power that can match X86-based UMPCs.  Multi-core Cortex-A9 based platforms are expected to reach production in 2010 but products won’t be in customers hands until 2011 meaning that in 2010, ARM-based devices will only be able to compete by offering longer battery life, lighter weight and active standby.

2010 will be the year that the Windows Desktop operating systems are shown to be limiting the progress of the UMPC. Sub-system power control is the only way forward if Intel want to compete with the ARM platforms and this is simply not compatible with Windows operating systems. The difference between battery life on Windows/Menlow and Moblin/Moorestown is going to be very significant and once OEMs see this, we’ll see a move away from Windows-based devices. At least for the pro-sumer UMPC market. Specialist business UMPCs running Windows 7 will remain.  2010 will be a year where a new generation of Linux-based UMPC products will be designed. Unfortunately, we may not see those until 2011.

2010 will see big turning points for hardware and software but most of these won’t reach consumers until 2011.

In a recent ‘Thought Leaders’ study by Phil Hendrix of IMMR, a number of (US-based, I believe)people were asked the following question:

Three years from now, among individuals who own or use a PC, cellphone or smartphone, at home or work, what percentage do you think will have purchased a MID, again, by Q3 2011.

The average prediction is that by Q3 2011, 33% of these people will have a MID.

I know what you’re thinking. ‘No way.’ That’s what I thought until I read their definition of a MID. The IMMR definition of a MID is:

MIDs, or Mobile Internet Devices, are a new class of devices/PC’s that offer many of the features of a PC, but at 1-3lbs. are lightweight and portable enough to easily carry and use virtually anyplace, at any time.

Its not the definition that Intel use but its certainly the definition I’m hearing from ARM, Ti and others that regard even netbooks as mobile Internet devices. Based on that definition, I totally agree with the ‘Thought Leaders,’ whoever they may be.

A complimentary copy of the report, titled ‘The M in MIDs stands for Mobile’ and sponsored by GigaOM,  the GSMA mobile Innovation Market and InMobile, can be downloaded from the IMMR website at www.immr.org and it’s an interesting read covering more than just the penetration question. There are some quotes from the respondents included too like these two that I hear a lot: “Someone who has an iPhone right now, essentially has a MID already” and “With smartphones taking on 80%+ of MID-type activities, it will be tough to convince people to carry yet another device.”  So if the iPhone is a MID and more voice-enabled MIDs are on the horizon, what are we arguing about? Based on this segment of the market alone I’d say we will reach 30% penetration by end of 2011. Add netbooks into the mix and it’s almost a certainty but for me, the even nicer thought is imagining the hundreds of variations of mobile Internet-enabled devices that will appear.

Related article: MID, a definition that is hard to ignore.

How long will it be until netbook launches get zero press coverage? The comments on a recent netbook story over at Engadget give plenty of hints.  "Ahh i’m sick of all these mini laptops" says one commenter. "Please just make a weekly overview of the xxx rebadged notebooks that come out every day." says another.

How long before the profit margins on netbooks become so slim that there’s nowhere to go with pricing and all the devices become die-stamped copies? There’s at least five versions of the MSI Wind out there now and the latest one is by a light-bulb manufacturer! Will the next one use the Facebook brand as the differentiator?

How long before netbooks pass through the mass-market phase and enter laggard territory where they are pimped and given away free with a subscription to Readers Digest Online? How long before OEMs start to realise that most consumers are finding peace with netbooks, that even companies are buying them and that it’s possibly dangerous for their core laptop business? How long before the pricing war goes out of control and the quality suffers? How long before the money for R&D dries up and there’s no way out? It seems to me that there are issues for both OEMs and conumers ahead. [Article continues]

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