Ignore the old Orgiami-related ultra mobile PC term and take it for what it stands for. What do you want from your next Ultra Mobile Personal Computer?

Next week at IDF Beijing, Intel will be revealing what we suspect to be Cedar Trail, the next generation netbook platform. The problem is that there have been big changes in this market in 2010 and 2011. Netbooks have changed thanks to AMD, the user has changed, the internet has changed and there are now 3G-enabled, always-on tablets available for the price of a netbook. Intel may not have had time to build that market change into their new product so lets take  look at what it could reasonably achieve and then ask the question, what do you want in an ultra mobile personal computer?

Cedar Trail predictions here are based on personal knowledge and experience.

Cedar Trail is unlikely to be a major step forward in processing, graphics or video power but is likely to use the latest technologies and process to offer smaller dies which also means cheaper prices and lower power. In previous netbook platform generation changes we’ve seen 20% performance improvements couple with a 20% improvement in efficiency. Cedar Trail is unlikely to beat that so it would make sense that Cedar Trail is aimed at pushing the size and cost down. In the developed countries it is unlikely to make a huge difference but it could make a difference in developing countries.

Processing – Cedar Trail will be based around the Atom core and is likely to remain a 2-chip solution with CPU, GPU and Memory Controller on the same die. A change in the process to 32nm will improve efficiency and allow for a reduction in die size. Single and Dual-Core versions are likely to be available and clock rates are likely to remain in the 1.5-1.8ghz range. Hyperthreading will of course be included but we’re not expecting any surprises in terms of processing performance. No Turbo Boost, 2Ghz or quad-core versions…yet.

Graphics – This is an area where the Pinetrail platform has been hit hard in the last few months and Intel will either need to turn round something that matches the AMD C-50 APU or offers another angle. I don’t suspect a move to Power-VR cores and I don’t expect a huge boost in 2D/3D acceleration.  Don’t expect any GPGPU-related enhancements either. Cedar Trail is unlikely to compete with AMDs APUs in that respect because Cedar Trail is likely to be aimed at lower cost, smaller size, lower power.

Video – HDMI out is a must along with HD decoding. I expect that to be the major enhancement in Cedar Trail which will link with Adobe Flash to finally offer a smooth 720p YouTube experience and a 1080p experience via HDMI cable.

Restrictions – Microsoft is likely to continue to offer netbook-level licensing but that doesn’t mean that the platform itself can’t be used for other purposes. Expect Cedar Trail to be the simplest route to designing a Windows 7 Tablet which means you’ll see it with Windows Home Premium and MeeGo meaning 2GB and larger screens.

Pricing – Platform pricing will reduce slightly but the main cost advantages come in sizing and power budget. The smaller size and lower power dissipation means less time and material needs to be spent on the enclosure and motherboard. A fanless design could mean sealed-units which means a major saving in design and production costs. Smaller batteries can considerably reduce cost, especially when they are sealed-in units. Sub $200, 5hr units should be possible.

Power Envelope – With video decoding moving to a dedicated chip there will be improvements in the battery life claims from netbook manufacturers. The 8W TDP figure is likely to shrink to 7W to reflect this but be aware that these advantages may be offset by manufacturers as they enable lower cost or smaller batteries, again, meaning lower-cost products. Video playback battery life is likely to be the only truly noticeable change.

Features – Intel may choose to offer a wireless subsystem that includes support for Wireless Display and Wireless Audio. These ‘value-add’ features will be used in developed markets on higher-end products. USB3.0 is unlikely.

Always-On? One of the game-changing features for a netbook would be always-on. That means idling down to 100s of milliwatts of pwer usage. unfortunately, the basic PC platform is not built around this concept. The Cedar Trail platform is likely to adhere closely to the PC platform architecture and thus is not likely to offer any always-on features. That’s the value-add for the Z-series platforms (Oaktrail, Moorestown, Menlow)

Mcafee in silicon? Not for this time round. Like ‘Intel Insider’ and other premium silicon features, we’re likely to see these in high-end notebooks and desktops before the feature becomes cheap enough to put in a netbook.

In summary, Cedar Trail will bring two things to the market:

• Cheaper netbooks for developing markets. Possibly sealed-unit low-cost 3-cell netbooks for the first time.
• Thin, light, fanless, HD video, wireless display, HDMI features to high-end netbooks. Claims of battery life will increase but the average in-use battery life is likely to stay around the 7hr mark for advanced 6-cell netbooks.

Boring? Unfortunately, for most readers of this site that I know live in developed countries, yes. Cedar Trail isn’t going to be the marketing-fest that AMDs Fusion was although Intel and their partners will certainly try. There will be no major gaming performance advances. No GPGPU features and no high-end connectivity through USB3 or LightPeak. There will be no always-on features either but that’s largely the fault of the PC design itself. (And the reason why Moorestown and Medfield can’t run Windows!)

What do you want from your next Ultra Mobile Personal Computer?

Key features I’m watching for this year are:

• High Dynamic Range Computing (ultra low power to high-power computing in one unit)
• Controlled Always On feature (not wild multitasking always on as with Android)
• GPGPU features for accelerated browsing, image and video processing.
• Modular Design
• Fun, dynamic user interfaces
• Attention to sharing in the operating system
• Controlled standby with restricted multitasking / use of silicon. (To provide the ultimate always-on battery life)
• Application store
• Touch and Keyboard
• Location support subsystem
• Multi-user
• Phone and Desktop devices in the same family running the same operating system.
• Cloud-based applications (Like Google services)

What i’m talking about is a modular netbook that spans the world of mobile features and desktop features. You could also see it as a smartbook that breaks out of the cheap software mould and offers rich working applications such as office suites, a/v production and developer environments. It’s a device that spans the two Full Internet Experiences. Or maybe it’s two, that work together. We’ve seen attempts at this before but so far we haven’t seen the processing platform or operating system that has been able to drive it. Android and MeeGo are moving in the right directions and we should also expect Windows 8 to embrace this. Think of devices like the Asus Transformer.

Related article:  Social Netbooks and ARMs Lock-In Opportunity

Related article from GigaOm –  The Big Mobile and Desktop Platform Merge Is Underway (Written recently by Kevin Tofel)

I’ll be speaking about high-dynamic range computing and bridging the mobile / desktop gap at Mobile Monday next week in Munich.

The related IDF keynote will be on the 12th April (time on your location)

So fire away in the comments below what are you looking for in a 2011 Ultra Mobile Personal Computer?

Intel have dominated my mobile device choices for nearly 5 years but all that has changed in the last 4 months. Today, my ultra mobile PC retires and my netbook gets an upgrade.

For the last two, years my main computers have been a Quad-Core desktop that I use for hosting live sessions, podcasts and some video editing, and two mobile devices. The Gigabyte Touchnote Convertible Netbook has been my laptop and a Fujitsu U820 (actually a Japanese version U/B50N) ultra mobile PC has been used as my hot-desktop (as shown in this article.)

Today, the two mobile PCs drop away and are replaced with an AMD-based netbook solution and an ARM-based tablet. The Acer Aspire One 522 and Galaxy Tab have become my mobile device choices which means there is no longer a ultra mobile PC in my life.

The Fujitsu U820 had previously been my ultra mobile computer for expo’s and conferences and I remember using it successfully at SXSW in 2009. Over the last 5 months though its usefulness has waned because the Galaxy Tab has taken over. It fits *my* usage patterns a lot better. I sacrificed some ‘Full Internet Experience’ for weight, battery life, location, social networking apps, built-in camera, always-on and 3G. I talked about this ‘changeover’ last year. It’s now happened.

The Touchnote was still working well and I had no problems with it. After 2 years it’s proved to be rugged and capable but when the Acer Aspire One 522 came along last week it gave me so much more, in less weight and cost. Now that the Tab has taken over ultra-mobile duties to an acceptable level, there’s also no need for the U820.

I’ll miss the touchscreen on the Touchnote but I’m getting better battery life, more processing power,  way better HD and graphics acceleration and my 4GB RAM, SSD and Home Premium upgrade are adding to the experience i’m getting from the Acer Aspire.

The Acer Aspire One 522 is now my daytime desktop as well as my lightweight notebook.

What happens next?

As 7-inch tablets get better and better with improved software, faster processing engines and higher quality connectivity there’s more and more that can be done on them. I’m already creating articles, emails, Tweets, IM and images but I see improved video and camera hardware and software coming too. I see accessories that could help the tablet become a unit that everything could be done on if needed. I would have no problem whatsoever using a solution like this for a week if weight and energy restrictions demanded it. The need for an ultra-light netbook is reducing for me. Having said that, the requirement for a PC with a keyboard doesn’t drop away completely.

7-inch screens aren’t comfortable for rich content generation and editing so I still see the need for a netbook or notebook for ‘bum-on-seat’ activities. What I see happening is that my netbook will get taken up a notch into a 11.6 or 12.1-inch territory that allows me to improve my video work. It’s a project I’ve already started. That could happen very soon as the Asus Eee PC 1215b nears availability.

Smartphone load drops.

As for the pocketable device in my life, I’m finding I use a smartphone less and less now. Dropping back to a 3.5-inch or even 4-inch experience for Internet and social networking activities is painful and I’d rather take the Tab with me than have a large smartphone. My smartphone is now a voice, sms, MP3, USB storage and emergency internet device. The N8 fits in so well here because it also has a stunning camera that allows me to photoblog with ease.

Because of my tablet use, I don’t expect to be putting much load on my smartphone any more and the list of requirements changes totally.

Intel’s next netbook move.

I confess that I didn’t have a lot of faith in AMD’s Brazos solution but they did it. They’ve made a classic disruptive move which will change the face of the netbook forever and, unless Intel repond quickly, take share away from Intel in the low-cost computing market. Well-known features/keywords like ‘HDMI’ and ‘1080p’ that are recognizable to the man on the street will differentiate AMD from Intel and where the price is the same, there’s little to think about. Games are also possible on AMD netbooks and it leaves little room for Intel to play in when it comes to Cedar-Trail.  They’ll have to increase the CPU power (1.66ghz dual-core is a nice figure that looks better, and performs better than the AMD 1.0Ghz solution) and add their thermal monitoring to allow overclocking on a core-by-core basis. 2.0Ghz ‘Turbo’ will be worth seeing. They’ll also have to add the 1080p capability from their Menlow and Moorestown platforms. To beat AMD they will need Wireless Display and hardware-accelerated H.264 and WMV encoding features to help with video format conversion. Longer battery life is a must and this is something Intel is highly likely to deliver with amazingly low quiescent states and very tightly-coupled wireless solutions. Given the likelihood that they will have a lower platform TDP and enable a smaller motherboard size, Intel solutions are likely to be thinner and lighter.

Can Intel enter the always-on tablet space?

AMD appear to be a long way off from having a soft/hard stack that satisfies the requirements for an ultra mobile computing device but I still see big opportunities in the near, 1-2 year timescale for Intel. 2011 truly is just the start of a new era of multi-device computing and Intel have been working on developing solutions to hit all areas of the market for the last 3 years or more. Wi-Di (wireless display), hardware security, thermal monitoring, overclocking and Intel Insider are features that could really add something to a mobile platform and as we look towards higher processing platform capability (including faster busses and rich connectivity) Intel do have an advantage, especially where screen and wireless connectivity take the lions share of the battery drain. As for always-on, their Moorestown and Medfield hardware, coupled with their software solutions, appear to have that covered. Android for consumption; MeeGo for a cross-over Linux-based solution. Windows for a full, pro-computing solution. They have had serious problems getting a partner to make a compelling device but lets talk about this again after the MeeGo conference in May and the Nokia MeeGo product which could also air at that time.

And don’t think I haven’t forgotten about all the advantages that come with having a traditional mobile PC soft and hard architecture. USB host, multitasking user interface, mouse-over, business software, security, multi-user, extended display, remote desktop, upgrades and hacks, printing, ad-hoc Wi-Fi and a thousand other features that you forget about until you need them. If anything, my desire for high quality, flexible productive systems has gone up in the last months and this might sound strange but since the Japan disaster last week, I’ve been looking at mesh networking and emergency computing again and find that an X86 ultra mobile PC would be the best place to start. To that end, I’ll be loading up the U820 as my emergency computer.

That’s enough about me. How are you finding the ‘X-Over’ year of 2011?

Note. All my computing solutions have been paid for by my company and are not sponsored in any way. Runcore, however, supplied the SSD that i’m using in the Aspire One 522.

There are a lot of companies out there that you’ve never heard of but who have an important role in deciding whether a device hits the market. The distributors are often, along with carriers, the first people to have hands-on with preliminary hardware builds. They make multi-million dollar decisions and can make or break a product. It’s a risky, but important behind-the-scenes business.

One UK distributor that has been bringing mobile computing solutions to retailers and large business customers in the education, government and corporate sectors is Think 4 IT solutions. I had a chat with them yesterday about a number of products they’ve got shortlisted and others that they are considering after their visit to CES. One of them is the Viliv X70 Slate and, being one of the more important ‘pro-mobility’ products at CES, one I was interested in hearing more about.

Working with prototypes it’s difficult to give a full opinion but it’s clear that the X70 Slate is looking good so far. Battery life looks to be impressive and Think4IT reported that they’ve had 6hrs of video playback from a full charge. Remember, it’s a 21wh battery we’re talking about here so that’s about 3.5watt drain in video playback, from a full PC. (Most desktops will draw that much in standby mode!)

The most interesting part of the conversation involved interest from a major customer and a wish to speed up the availability of the Windows tablet. They’re pushing for end of March. No word on price yet.

We intend to stay in touch with both Viliv and Think4 so stay tuned for the earliest news on the new ultra mobile PC at UMPCPortal.

We’ve got the X70 Slate in the product database here.

I’ve got bad news for many of you that were very interested in the Ocosmos OCS1K slider ultra mobile PC today. The slider version has now been dropped (Official. It won’t be produced.) in favour of the mini tablet version you see in the middle above. For a company that tries to promote its own multiway pad input solution, I guess this isn’t surprising.

Specs are shown above and the only thing I can add is that the battery should be bigger in the new version leading to longer battery life. If you look at the Oaktrail figures so far and the size of the device you’re probably looking at 4-5hrs of usable battery life.I can’t see how they could really squeeze much more out of it in real-world scenarios.

Here’s a video from the very noisy Showstoppers event last night.

The readers here at umpcportal are generally a productive bunch. Many of you have been following the swiss-army knife of mobile computing, the handheld windows pc, for years and judging by the comments here, I know that a lot of you know exactly what you want.
Given that you’re an intelligent bunch I wanted to ask you your opinion on Windows Tablets.

Intel have just announced a run of Windows tablet PC’s for 2011 and we can expect them to be on both the Pinetrail and the new Oaktrail platform. Weight is likely to be 800gm and battery life no more than 5hrs given the size constraints. Capacative  screens are likely to feature heavily and you can guarantee that there will be more than one overlay package included that is supposed to make Windows 7 finger-friendly.

My position is much as it has always been. Mobile PC’s have their place but the requirement for full desktop operating systems is going down, not up. Sure, with a marketing push there might be some sales to be had but that’s nothing to do with ‘requirement’ right?

And what about the tablet form factor? Is that the best form factor to be putting out with a mouse-driven OS?

I’m interested to hear your views and specifically, thoughts about the following questions.

– Is the requirement for Windows 7 Tablets going up or down?

– Is the tablet form factor the best for a full handheld pc?

– What features are needed to increase the requirement of Windows handheld devices?

– What are the major selling points of a Windows handheld PC?

– Will marketing Windows Tablets as consumer devices be a good long term strategy?

Looking forward to your thoughts.

Thanks to nick95 in our forums we now have an official spec sheet on the Ocosmos OCS1 that we covered at IDF in September. The OCS1 was one of the first Oaktrail products we’d seen and definitely, a UMPC! [Tracking page includes links and videos]

5 inch Slider screen at 1024×768 looks useful but those controllers don’t include a mouse pointer which, especially on a Win 7 device with capacitive screen, is not going to help. Interestingly, Ocosmos are pitching this at carriers although to be honest, every UMPCs manufacturer’s secret aim was always to get a carrier as a channel.

If I remember my Oaktrail specs correctly, we’re looking at a 1.5Ghz or 1.9Ghz single-core CPU (I suspect the former) here and some interesting improvements over the older (no, let’s just call it ‘old’ now!) Menlow platform. 400Mhz GPU with HD decoding, 720p encoding, MP3 decoding hardware, improvements in memory speed and a more compact silicon layout. Overall battery life improvements are expected to be in the 20% range (that info comes to me from an ODM contact using the platform) with idle (screen-off, Wi-Fi connected) potentially even better.

The OCS1 is being pitched as a gaming device but I have a few problems with that. 1) Windows games often required the CDROM to be present. You’ll need ‘no-cd’ hacks. 2) The GPU is improved over Menlow but years behind the performance of a modern PC. You’ll need to choose games 3-5 years old although with AppUp starting to deliver some interesting games and game developer partnerships, it’s one to watch for games that will definitely fit the screen and processing capabilities.

When we spoke to Ocosmos at IDF they were talking about 10 hours battery life but let me tell you that even if they slap a 24wh battery pack on the back, 10hrs is still only going to be the idle, screen-off figure. I’m expecting a 10-15wh battery and an average in-use drain of about 5W giving about 3hrs of working, screen-on life over about 5hrs of ‘on’ time. If they manage to squeeze in a 24wh battery it will raise the price and weight somewhat but return an interesting 5-7hrs.

‘Target Launch’ is Q1 2011 which sounds interesting enough for a CES showing. We suspect that if they’ve got something working well by CES, it will be on the Intel booth. Between now and then we’ll try and get an direct update from Ocosmos.

Ocosmos website.

Ocosmos OC1 thread in the forums.

How easy is it to work for a day on a PC. Easy! How about writing 1,000 words and carrying less than 1KG of equipment that costs under €1000? How about doing it while traveling and not carrying any mains adapters?

Next week I have three days on my own and I plan to get away from the home office. I’m not sure where I’m going but I do know that I will be setting myself a challenge to finish my e-book which is now nearly a year past my planned schedule. I’m also going to throw in some other targets too and it should be interesting for you to watch. Can I work for a full day carrying less than1KG of equipment worth less than €1K.

This isn’t going to be easy because what I’m talking about here is a full mobile office with the following features:

• ‘PC’ with email, web browser, document editing capabilities, storage, screen, keyboard and Wifi
• 3G internet connectivity
• Navigation system
• Camera (minimum 2MP)
• Video camera (MIN VGA)
• MP3 player and headphones

The PC alone is quite the challenge as you’ll see from an article I wrote in the summer. Finding a netbook under 1KG is impossible so you’re left with specialist devices or ARM-based tablets and ‘smart books’ and even then, adding the additional capabilities (obviously via a smartphone) and ensuring you’ve got enough battery power is something i’ve never been able to do in 1KG before. My reporting kits of the past have rarely got close to 1KG. This one was an exception.

I’ve set a few ground rules which also narrow down the choice.

• Screen: 7 inch or more. In my experience, trying to work efficiently on anything less is going to result in stress, aches and embarrassment as you crouch over the device to read the screen or enlarge the text so much that you haven’t got enough working space. For most people 9 or 10 inch is entry level.
• Battery life: 5 hours. A full day would be regarded as 8hrs or more by most but there are only a few devices around that could deliver more than that in an always-connected, screen-on scenario. The iPad springs to mind as the #1 choice in terms of battery life but I need to consider other, more business-oriented options.
• Document editing capabilities includes offline text input and formatting capabilities with embedded images and links. In summary: offline rich text.
• Connectivity does not have to be on-board and can be provided via BT tethering, 3G dongle , MiFi or free wifi connectivity.
• Charging: No re-charging. Spare batteries allowed if they fit in the 1K allowance
• Multiple test rigs per day. I know that some of the solutions won’t last for more than 5hrs. In order to get the most out of my 3 days, i’ll be taking multiple ‘rigs’ so that I can switch to a new setup if needed.
• 4 Setups will be tested. If I can’t get a rig working in under 1KG, I will make it as near as possible using the resources I’ve got.

The Shortlist.

As I mentioned, there isn’t a netbook out there that can do this so we’re looking at UMPCs. The Viliv S7 (830gm), Sony Vaio P11 (632gm) and Viliv X70 EX (660gm) head up the list of PCs that I could choose from although there’s a good chance that the Tega V2 will turn up here in time for the test. That would be an interesting one at 800gm and with a nice 10 inch screen. Adding a keyboard and the phone would probably take it to 1.2KG though. We’ll have to see. There are some other non-windows devices too. The Toshiba AC100 runs for 7hrs and weighs only 800gm. I would only need to add a smartphone to complete that setup in under 1KG. The Viewsonic ViewPad 7 would be a very very interesting option. It would only need a keyboard to complete the set-up as it already has GPS, 3.2MP cam, navigation, voice, SMS and 3G built-in. I will try my best to get hold of one of these for the test. There’s the iPad to consider too but getting a stand and keyboard in under 1KG could be a challenge. I’ll see what I can do about getting an iPad setup for the test.

Current shortlist:

• Viliv S7
• Toshiba AC100
• Tegatech Tega V2 – Depending on availability
• Viewsonic Viewpad 7 – Depending on availability
• FM600 or iPad
  

More K’s?

The 1K challenge starts on Saturday and I’m thinking of adding one more ‘k’. Can I travel 1000 kilometers while I do this?

Sponsorship.

Naturally this project is open to sponsorship. If you’re a reseller of mobile computing solutions and want to put your name or products forward, please contact me. German resellers, I’d especially like to meet you! Lass uns zusammen ein bier trinken! Get in contact with me via the contact form available through the link on the site header

Help / Meet-and-greet.

If you live in Germany/UK/Netherlands and have a Vaio P11, an iPad 3G or another solution you want me to consider, (UK or German OS please) get in contact with me via the contact form available through the link on the site header. If you live in Duesseldorf, Hannover, Stuttgart or some other major city and you fancy a mobile blogging meet-up, let me know and I’ll try to plan it in.

Stay tuned to UMPCPortal for more information on the 1K challenge later this week.

It’s under 24hrs to the launch of the Samsung Galaxy Tab, a 7 inch Android Tablet that’s getting a huge piece of the pre-IFA coverage and one that went straight to number 1 on our popularity charts. It’s not Samsungs first 7 inch tablet though. It’s actually their 7th. Yes, they’ve been in the 7 inch tablet business for over 4 years now and know a thing or two about tablet design. Their engineering skills are proven and they have access to some amazing electronic components. Screens, CPUs and storage that no other ODM has.

View all Samsung 7 inch tablets side-by-side.

Lets take a quick look at the history and then you can use the ‘Chooser’ to find out which one matches your requirements.

It was Feb 2006 when Samsung joined TabletKiosk, Amtek, ASUS and others to launch the first handheld tablets based on the Origami concept. They used low power laptop components coupled with CCFL-backlit screens and early 1.8 inch hard drives. The operating system was Windows XP Tablet Edition and you were looking at about 2.5hrs battery life for over $1000.

A VIA version appeared at IFA in the same year and introduced 3G and LED-backlighting to save power. The Q1b was a good product and the one I chose for my Solar-ultra mobile PC tour in 2007.

After Intel re-designed their Pentium to make a ‘Stealey’ CPU aimed at ultra mobile PCs, Samsung redesigned the ultra mobile PC to include a split keyboard, 1024×600 high-brightness screen, 4hr battery life, SSD and 3G options. There was even an Intel Core model, the ‘premium‘ which even today can still blow the socks off most UMPCs.

After that, Samsung took a break. They teased about new designs but in the end, the only thing they came up with was a VIA Nano-based device, the Q1EX that was good but not that different from the Ultra.

Tomorrow, we’ll see the next generation of Samsung’s 7 inch tablets. It will be running an ARM-licensed core architecture (Samsung’s own Hummingbird) and Android version 2.2. It’s a complete departure in terms of platform and will angle towards a consumer crowd. We expect great battery life, a very high quality screen and light-weight but we don’t expect a full internet experience. Flash may be included but it won’t be that smooth. The web browser will also have limitations. For the target market those problems won’t be an issue though and like most others, we’re excited to be getting a look at it tomorrow at IFA.

So which one is for you? I been through the main models and rated against various categories. All you have to do is choose your requirements and see what the winner is! Let us know if you get a surprise!

Product Chooser: Choose between a Galaxy Tab, a Q1 Ultra Premium, a Q1 and a Q1EX