Thanks to the great crowd at DevMob2010 in London last week, I’ve had some good feedback to my scenarios and segmentation diagram which was originally created in 2006 and is now updated and re-published under CC license. It should help as a stimulus for software developers thinking about the possibilities in the space between smartphones and netbooks and can help device designers to think about usage scenarios. Customers will also find it useful to pick out their own usage scenarios and to see what type of device fits with their requirements.
FEEDBACK IS ENCOURAGED. If you have thoughts, please add them to the comments section below.
During my session at DevMob I had a set of suggestions which I’ve added to the diagram. It was interesting to hear suggestions for the 8-10 segment which included Multi-touch/User gaming (many players, one device) and multi-person video viewing. Those are two models that the iPad is targeting very closely. We also added ‘Media Overview / Chooser’ to the 8-10 segment based on the need for screen space for an overview of images, album cover art or video’s.
Many thanks to all that took part in the sessions at DevMob and thanks to all of you that took the time to present and talk about your ideas in this space. I hope to see you all again at the next DevMob2010 and at other events in Europe.
Update: I’m experimenting with a slightly different layout based on feedback below. The segments have been re-drawn to represent a more fluid crossover point.
Everyone is free to make their own definition of a MID. Intel like to define it as a pocketable web-capable device. Dell used the expression for netbooks at one point and I’ve talked about a wide-ranging Ring of FIE (right) which includes MID-like, internet-connected devices that don’t even need a browser. It looks like ISuppli take a similar idea and use it for their definition of a mobile internet device.
ISuppli (El Segundo, Calif.) defines MIDs as devices that have integrated connectivity for wireless local area network (WLANs), wireless metropolitan area networks or 3G-or-higher worldwide wide area networks. They also must a maximum-sized display of 8-inches in the diagonal dimension, an instant-on function, an always-connectable capability and a full day’s worth of battery life under typical usage scenarios, according to the firm’s definition.
Far enough. But what about the statement on smartphones?
Smartphones are projected to dominate the MID segment in the forecast period from 2008 to 2012, iSuppli said. The firm estimates that about 60 percent of all smartphones now are considered MID-class devices, but that figure will rise to cover 100 percent by 2012.
I agree that smartphones (if we continue to call them that) may dominate numbers as they move up the chain in terms of sizing, software and processing capability but I certainly wouldn’t class 60% of all smartphones as MIDs today.
As I said, definitions vary so despite my reservations about those smartphones, if you’re researching the sector you might want to be buying a copy of the ISuppli report.
I have no problem agreeing with what InStat are saying in their latest report. "Embedding a wide-area wireless modem into devices addresses the frustration many users have with the coverage of Wi-Fi." For me, wireless wan connectivity is an absolute must for a UMPC and anything without it is just portable between hotspots but I do also understand that there are problems for OEMs too. Adding 3G to a product requires more certification expense, assembly-line options, adds cost and is difficult to research on a global territory basis. This is why you see OEMs like Raon Digital offering base systems that resellers can tailor for their own customers. It’s also why Intel have a modular 3/4G option in their Menlow platform.
There are also people that aren’t quite as mobile as others using multiple WLAN locations as hot-desks or even working within a single hotspot area. Tethering and USB sticks also provide an option but as carriers get their backbones ready for this new class of netbook and UMPCs and as 3G USB stick margins drop, they will start demanding that devices come with 3G built in. If OEM’s want to get their devices into these potentially huge sales channels, they need to comply.
The InStat report also covers UMPC market predictions. Unfortunately there aren’t any hints as to what they think the market is worth and even what a UMPC or UMD is. For what it’s worth, I don’t think there’s going to be too much growth in the traditional UMPC market (productive, 6-8" screen, lightweight mobile computing hardware running desktop software) this year due to lower-cost netbook options and fairly static vertical markets and solutions but if you look at lower down in the market at 4-5" devices, there’s something starting to happen. Viliv, Raon, UMID, Fujitsu, Wibrain, Lluon and others are all in with new devices. Some may call them MIDs but when they running Windows and looking exactly like the Origami marketing dreams of 2006, you’ve got to consider them as UMPCs.
ABI surveyed 1000 people about netbooks. According to their results, only 79% see them as a secondary computer. 11% see them as a primary computer proving that there is a significant overlap an direct impact on notebook sales. No surprise really.
The results are not good news for laptop and netbook manufacturers in general, despite the 79% that are buying a netbooks as a second device. Here are some thoughts from the top of my head.
Any survey done at the moment is dealing with early-curve consumers that are highly likely to buy a second device. In one year the figures might be worse purely based on the change of customer type (although it will be hard to do this survey in the mainstream market as many consumers may not even know they’ve bought a netbook)
Even if people buy a netbook as a secondary device, it will change their purchasing rhythm pushing the purchase of a replacement notebook further out. In some cases the netbook may satisfy the customer 100% and the next notebook purchase may never happen.
As netbooks move to bigger screens, they pull prices of normal laptops down in order to compete on perceived value.
My feeling is that the netbook effect is going to hit manufacturers very hard in the next 3 years. Netbooks aren’t going away though so they will need to find a way to cope with it. This means stripping out niche products, reducing quality and implementing lots of tricky marketing.
In the video, I talk about my choices of today’s element (fire) and my transport of the day (the bicycle), and take you on a little tour of Edinburgh.
The Compal was used for three main areas today – wiring up blog posts, doing the route planning (courtesy of Google Maps, which takes me on a weird route I wouldn’t have considered), and pointing out the extra information about the monuments on Calton Hill available by browsing the internet when you’re standing next to them.
Japan’s population is about 128 million people so to say that one in 25 will buy a MID in 2012, just over 3 years away, seems a little surprising. Even more surprising is the prediction that, together with 18 million smartphone sales, the MID/Smartphone segment will form about 40% of the total handset market meaning MIDs would be 10% of the total handset market. However, the definition of a MID that has been used seems slightly off-mark and puts the average screen size at 3.5 inches. I could understand an average of 4" but 3.5"? Too small for 800×480? Cue Touch HD owners…
The concept of MID is defined in this report according to five conditions, which are Mobility, Always-On, Embedded 3G+, Display Size, and Full Browsing. This report emphasizes that in order to offer mobility while being differentiated from Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), MIDs have to be embedded with 3G+ cellular chip. When mobile WiMAX is vitalized, MID products that cover voice services based on VoIP and offer mobile broadband might hit the market.
PC World report that netbooks make up most of the Cyber Monday top-10 sales list on Amazon.com. It it’s not just on Amazon.com that it’s happening. Germany and the UK are two other netbook-crazy countries where netbook interest is leading, not just the computer segments, but the whole consumer electronics segment. The Samsung NC10, for example, is the number three most-viewed device in the popular German price comparison engine, Geizhals. That’s number three out of over 300,000 consumer products including DVD’s, phones and LCD TV’s. At number 10 is the Eee PC. The Wii appears at number 11 and the first notebook appears at number 35.
Anyone care to take a guess at how it might look in 12 months?
Part One: ‘What is Ultra Mobile Computing?‘ We give you a history of Ultra Mobile computing, show you how the devices break down into segments and show you what each segment is capable of.
Part Two: ‘Details and Choices.‘ It covers the form factors, the keyboard, storage, the screen and connectivity elements of an Ultra Mobile PC. You’ll find a good overview and a lot of tips that will help you refine your choice.
Part Three ‘Details and Choices (contd.)‘ continues the details about the components and covers CPU (including a detailed overview of the currently available solutions) GPU, memory, battery, weight and cost.
Part Four: ‘Additional Information and further reading.‘ In this section we cover some of the less commonly found features on Ultra Mobile computers and give you information and links to further reading resources.
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