A UMD, as defined by ABI Research, is a netbook, MID, UMPC or mobile consumer electronics device. I like that definition as it’s almost exactly the scope of the devices we cover on UMPCPortal, MIDMoves, and Meet:Mobility.

385 Million is a big number and ABI’s marketing flyer for their latest report doesn’t give any indication as to how that breaks down but based on netbook figures of about 45 million predicted for 2012 (Intel) , there’s a lot of other devices in that number. Clearly ‘Mobile consumer electronics’ covers a wide spectrum and if it includes devices like the iPod touch and the big PND segment, then that probably covers most of the rest but I like the fact that ABI are still keeping a close eye on the MID segment. Yes, it does have potential…

Pocketable MIDs remain a far more interesting product segment to watch, says Orr, as the market is still emerging. While the most common product design remains the tablet form, competing form factors such as models with slider keyboards, clamshells and touch-screen-only interfaces are gaining in popularity. “However, there is a danger that the MID market will disappear before it gets the chance to mature, as smartphones increase in popularity and mimic most if not all tasks performed by MIDs.”

…but I don’t agree that it will die. Screen size requirements, keyboard requirements, battery life and other physical aspects mean that smartphones will never be able to wipe out the MID market. I’m 100% sure of that. The lines will blur, as they always do, but there are a ton of people that don’t want to deal with the compromises that convergence brings. Just ask the ebook reader fans about that!

I had the pleasure of meeting Jeff Orr, the senior analyst for ABI that covers this segment, at IDF this year and one thing we both agreed on, after a very passionate hour-long chat about the segments, was that the category boundaries are more dynamic than ever. Hat-tip to ABI for trying to tackle it!

Now a promotional item with apologies to ABI…

ABI research are offering a copy of their Mobile Internet Devices Product Database for $5000. Our mobile devices product database is free, dynamic and available here. (click here for a device overview) We also offer the Ultra Mobile Devices Buyers Guide. Again, for free. (Although donations are gratefully accepted!!!)

The Mobile Computing Guide 2009 is being written now and will be available, for a small price this time, in November.

If you are in the netbook or MID business and haven’t looked through the Intel IDF content catalogue yet, do so now. Download relevant PDFs before they are gone because they contain some real information gems.

For example, IDG are predicting that the netbook market will reach over 30m units in 2011 rising to 45m in 2012 and that the netbook market will represent just 15% of the overall market for laptops (staying steady at 15% from 2009 until 2012 at least.

Or how about that the average netbook price in the US is way lower, at just over $300, than anywhere else in the world where prices are nearer to $400.

On Linux, Intel says that it will DROP in market share between 2008 and 2012 with Windows 7 taking the lions share. That doesn’t stoke much confidence in Moblin does it!

Western Europe is currently the biggest netbook market at over 2x shipments compared to the US.

Source: SF09_MPTS007 (via the Content catalog.)

There are some interesting stats about users and buyers too. 85% of netbooks are bought for one’s own use and that person is in their mid-30s. Internet surfing is the most common use with video streaming coming in at a tiny percent of usage (2%)

Source: SF09_MPTS008 (via the Content catalog.)

There’s a nice set of study data too. Did you know that most smartphone, MID, laptop and netbook usage sessions are under 5 minutes long and that 70% of active time was to social-related applications?

78% of usage is through the browser.

Source: SF09_RESS008 (via the Content catalog.)

Other interesting presentations to check out:

Intel’s Next Generation System-On-a-Chip (CETS003) – Find out about the CE4100 Atom processor targeted at IPTV applications. Interesting items: CivX certifications, jpeg decode acceleration, 1080p acceleration and more.

Mobile PC Power Sources: Li-Ion Battery Technology (EBLS003) In interesting presentation that will bring you up to date about what’s happening in the real world of Li-Ion technology. (My notes here)

Check out the set of MID-related presentations too. SF09_MIDS005 talks about the telephony stack and the SNRLabs connection management software that will be in Moblin 2.1 for handhelds.

On the Moblin side of things, at least take the time to check out MOBS001 which has an excellent diagram showing the breakdown of developers across mobile platforms and how Moblin will span MIDs, netbooks, nettops, auto and embedded markets. Did you know that gesture support is planned for 2.1, that sync and sensor support is planned for V2.2 and that later versions in the 2011 and 2012 timeframe should support intelligent multi-screen, multi-touch and context-aware software? Check out the Moblin roadmap.

There are other presentations about cloud computing, turbo-boost technology, Moorestown (my analysis here) and I’ve listed some more recommended sessions here.

If the links above don’t work, you can find the downloads on the IDF 2009 Content Catalog

This one has surprised me a little bit. I expect a certain type of MID to merge with the rising capabilities of smartphones but I didn’t expect 50% of people to agree that MIDs (ABI seems to point to big-screen devices that aren’t 24/7 devices) would be cell phone replacements. Have I been a bit short-sighted here? Are we getting to a point where a 4" or even 5" screen MID with voice capabilities would be acceptable as a smartphone by a significant number of people?

MIDs have been proposed by some as cell phone replacements. Does the public agree? In this survey, almost half did, lending support to models incorporating cellular voice, while 34% said they would continue to use a cellular handset.

“This is going to become a question for MID vendors and consumers alike,” says Philip Solis, principal analyst at ABI Research. “There will be little difference between a smartphone such as the Palm Pre which uses an OMAP 3 processor and a MID with cellular voice, except for screen size. Understanding of what consumers want from stand-alone MIDs without cellular voice will be important.”

The survey was done in the U.S. where, in my experience, there’s more acceptance, or even a demand for ever bigger mobile computing products and I know there are people reading UMPCPortal that are waiting for the all-in-one to appear. I may be underestimating this part of the market. Maybe ‘MID’ is the new ‘smartphone’? On the other hand, do the ‘public’ really know what a MID is?

ABI research press release.

ABI research are expecting 35 million netbooks to be shipped in 2009 and 139 Million in 2011.

Their definition of a netbook is not stated. The source is unknown too as the press release points to their Q4 2008 review of the mobile market.

My prediction is less than half that in 2009, based on the traditional definition of a netbook. 139 million seems to high for the traditional netbook market but if they’re including all the devices that are creeping up in price, features and size then why not.

35 Million Netbook Shipments Expected in 2009: An Era Begins | Press Release | ABI Research.