A few weeks ago I wrote down what I thought was the most likely timeline for 2nd-gen Ultrabooks, just a few days before a leak pointed at a June 5th launch.
Taking the new information into account I’ve updated the timeline for Ultrabook activities. If I get more information I’ll update again. Again, the timeline is my estimation based on information and experience and I’m publishing it to help those that are making plans to buy both 1st and 2nd-gen Ultrabooks in the Q3-Q4 2012 timeframe.
Computex, Taiwan, is one of the most important trade shows for the laptop market and this year it coincides with the availability of low-power Ivy Bridge CPUs for Ultrabooks so it makes sense that Intel and their customers seize the moment to launch the 2nd Generation of Ultrabooks.
In an article at Techworld.com, Scott Pendrey, desktop product manager at Intel, gives us the information that “the first ultrabooks featuring Ivy Bridge processors will come to market on 5 June, with more to follow throughout 2012.”
Up to now we’ve worked out that 2nd-gen Ultrabooks will be available from June (our estimate,) that there are 100 Ultrabooks launching this year (Intel quote) and that the prediction is for about 20 million shipments in 2012 (Juniper Research projection.) A brief update from Digitimes runs along the same lines but says it has the information from the supply chain.
We’ve been hearing about 23rd April availability of Ivy Bridge for a while now but what does that mean and what does it mean for Ultrabooks? What’s clear is that there’s still some time to go before anyone is able to buy a 2nd-gen Ultrabook. Our estimate for the earliest models is now mid-June.
There’s two things to consider. ‘Availability’ in this case means 1st shipping of the Ivy Bridge CPUs. Arrival at manufacturers production facilities comes some days after that and then manufacturers can ramp up their production lines for the first major run. Testing and shipping from the production facility and then testing by distributors and shelf availability will take 2-3 weeks after that, for the first-in-line and ready-to-go manufacturers. We’re estimating mid-May for the first Ivy Bridge laptops. But not Ultrabooks.
Update: Paul Otellini just announced “The first Ivy Bridge chips we’re shipping are quad cores” in the Intel earnings conference call this evening. (via)
We’re hearing that the 2-core, high-end processors used in Ultrabooks won’t start production until mid-May which means you won’t see the first Ultrabooks in the hands until mid-June. At that point availability will still be limited and we expect only one or two manufacturers to be able to hit that availability date. After that, other manufacturer products will start to roll in. Here’s how we think it will pan out from now until the end of the year…
I don’t believe any of the Gen-1 Ultrabooks should be taken off the market to be replaced with Ivy Bridge models but there’s a risk that they will be if manufacturers adopt a two-prong approach with low and high-end Ivy Bridge devices. News just in via The Verge says that new Ivy Bridge Ultrabooks, the UX32A and UX32Vd, will start at $800. Does that leave any space for price drops on the UX21 and UX31?
While old stock may go for cheaper prices in Q3 we think it’s unlikely that the UX21 and UX31 will continue on the production line.
One of Acer’s Middle East country managers might have just let-slip the timeline for the next generation of Ultrabooks with a statement to press that a “slightly redesigned” Acer Ultrabook will be launched with a “new platform from Intel” early next year.
The timeline beats estimates that Ivy Bridge Ultrabooks may not appear until the 2nd-half of the year.
“Acer… plans to launch the second generation of Aspire S3 early next year that is expected to help double its sales, Acer Middle East country manager Grigory Nizovsky said.”
“I think in April next year we are having a new slightly redesigned version of S3 with slight adjustment in outlook,”
If this is the case, expect a range of phase-2 Ultrabook launches in April 2012 although availability still could drag on into Q3 if Ivy Bridge production doesn’t ramp up quickly enough.
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