Forward Concepts, the company that last week produced one of the first detailed studies on a ‘Mobile Internet Device’ product category have been interviewed by Electronics Supply and Manufacturing about the report and have brought some good questions and information about the segment to the surface. For example, I didn’t know (or had I forgotten?) that HP are developing a MID, that Qualcomm are working on 15 products and that TI are working on ‘at least a dozen.’ I don’t expect that all of these designs will reach the market but even a handful from each company will knock Intels ecosystem back a step or two. Forward Concepts also predicts that the MID market will grow to 40 million units in 2012 with North America, Europe and Japan each generating roughly 20% of the sales.
What is a MID? What is a UMPC?
Forward Concepts puts this proposal forward for the definition of a MID and UMPC: [after the jump…]
On the whole I agree with this definition, especially the MID definition because it matches the one I did for my ideal device. The ‘Carrypad’ definition was written 2.5 years ago though. (Yes, I do like to blow the trumpet on that one occasionally!) Obviously, ARM-based CPU’s fit perfectly into this technical spec and as I’ve said before, will probably drive the early winners. Intel don’t really have the best chance with Menlow as from what we’ve seen so far, it’s bigger, hotter and less efficient than some of the ARM-based competition. Moorestown, the next generation of Intel’s Atom CPU should fix that but there’s something else that we need to consider in Intel’s favour – application development.
Intel’s software advantage.
Funnily enough, it could be the Netbook UMPCs that help Intel in the MID market. Or should I say Moblin because they have manoeuvred that software product, though their Netbook-Linux distribution partnerships into a very strong position where it could drive hundreds of millions of consumer devices within the next 5-year timespan. Because of netbooks, Intel now has an almost guaranteed 20+ million user base for Moblin based netbooks through Canonical, Xandros, Linpus and Asianux distros over the next few years. Add a significant part of the 40 million-unit prediction for the same core operating system in the MID market for the next 4 years and the road-map that shows Intel moving the same core OS into the multi-million-per-week smartphone market in 2010 and you reach a very significant number of users. 50 million customers per year in 5 years would be a conservative estimate. I haven’t even included the TV’s, cars and refrigerators in the calculation and if you imagine a CPU product scenario where Atom is extended up to multi-core architectures capable of running consumer versions of Vista thus covering every consumer computing requirement on the planet you can see how Intel’s Moblin core, guidelines and specifications could end up bringing Linux and Linux applications into a leading position in the consumer space along with hundreds of millions of CPU sales for Intel. Apples iPhone software program looks like a minnow in comparison with what could happen with Moblin. ISV’s, especially those familiar with developing for X86/Linux, would be silly not to consider investing time and money into developing high quality app’s for this platform because the rewards could be huge. iTunes for Moblin anyone? Open Office Mini? Gaming? Pay-per-view? VoiP? Social Networking? See your app arrive in millions of pockets, on millions of desktops, car dashboards and on fridge doors almost overnight!
OHA, Microsoft, Apple, Nokia and other companies software efforts are obviously all going to be problems for Intel to tackle if they intend to follow this path with Moblin but having 10’s of millions of Moblin customers already lined-up for the next 1-2 years is going to give Intel and its partner developers a huge springboard and massive potential.
As for the 40-million unit MID prediction, I don’t think it’s far off when you consider that the form factor and processing power is perfect for navigation, PMPs, internet tablets, some high-end specialist smartphones and a device that converges all four segments. If Moblin works well and stimulates the right application and UI development and someone takes a risk on the pricing as ASUS did with the Eee PC, the growth could be even faster than predicted.
Developers should head to the Intel Atom Software dev community for more information on Atom and Moblin software development. More details on the report are available here.
By this definition MID is indeed what I am looking for mainly due to:
Instant/Constant on.
Battery time.
Now with these definitions (battery time for instance) none of the so called MID qualify to be called an MID currently correct? I mean frankly 50% of 24hrs is completely acceptable to me but not the 2-5 hours we so often see in this category that is just UNacceptable in my opinion.
That 24hrs figure is a bit misleading. There isn’t a platform on the planet that would give you 24 hours 3g-on internet browsing use. I guess they mean something like 24hrs between charges with 3-4 hours usage per day.
Steve.
Yes I understand the 24 hour mark is way off but it gives an idea as to the goals of these devices I think?
Well I don’t know if that is how it should be looked at, I mean how many hours straight would you or me use 3G, the idea is more like battery time with average usage (kind of like from the automotive industry’s “combined” city and highway consumption of gas, doesn’t mean you or I would do 100 km every time now would it :))
I think that 1-8 flash is too low and based on demand it will grow. And I think that 6″ is too big for a pocket device so it should stop at 5″.
“In our opinion, MIDs are not designed to replace mobile phones (or Smartphones) but to be used as companion devices. They will rival notebook computers in features and capabilities yet come in a significantly smaller, lighter, fit-into-your-coat-pocket form factor, thus spurring the birth of a whole new class of mobile multimedia devices that fall in between a Smartphone and notebook/tablet computer.”
They got it backwards in my opinion! I am willing to bet that it will never compete with a netbook but should and will compete with Smartphones come late 09.
@Chippy,
Thought about this for a while and since I have somewhat stepped out of the WM and Symbian world at least when it comes to the use of WWAN, I am not sure if there is any device that is capable of this but let me explain my idea.
What I like about the constant on devices is that they are in constant communication with the network for various email, IM and other live communication solutions, now obviously for such one don’t need 3G when they are in “active standby” (read: device is ON but screen is off and you’re not actively using it but it’s communicating and check the network). So is there any 3G capable device that rather than knocking you off the network when you stop using the network (or you logoff) would be capable to continue to be active in EGPRS or even GPRS level of communication? I mean for me that would be sufficient and could give an otherwise 3G device some outstanding battery times?
@Tal,
I agree fully!
On the battery time, I was thinking generally speaking I would like to have a constant on type device that can go (un)plugged as long as I usually do which is around 16-18 hours on a regular basis.
ecsk2.
Getting any device with a 5-10Wh battery to run 16-18hrs connected to a 3G network doing some form of IP over 3G would depend on the apps.
Email using IMAP and NO-OP (i think the control message is if I remember my IMAP theory) would work fine but if you started polling every minute, the phone would be in an active state with the cell tower most of the time and drain battery quickly. (I’m talking HSDPA here.)
One example: Nokia Sportstracker in ‘online’ mode will send GPS data to the server so often that the phone never gets out of it’s high-power radio state. The battery dies in something like 90 minutes on my N82, just like it would with a 3G voice call.
IM would kill battery in a similar way unless the protocol was adapted for 3G usage. Gizmo project has a protocol that does this. (I think it uses some proprietary protocol over HTTP or perhaps a tweaked jabber over port 80, not sure.)
Application control is going to be an important part of keeping battery life high on MIDs. I’m not sure that the problem has really been tackled yet though.
In theory, 16-18hrs is possible but in practice, it could be difficult with small devices (small batteries.)
Steve.
There is no way that MIDs can survive without adding voice-calling capabilities. The majority of consumers will NOT carry two devices (MID + phone) when one device can do it all. Look at the WM and Palm PDA market… there are hardly any devices left without an integrate phone.
The real competition here is the converged all-in-one smartphone market.
If the work done on Moblin can be successfully used in Moorestown, I think Intel may have a good chance at taking a substantial chuck of the market.
However, the WM platform (which generally runs on ARM-based devices) already has a large developer base. If Microsoft can get their act together and produce a consumer friendly WM7 AND offer cheaper development tools for WM, I think their market share will also grow.
Apple… They’ve cemented the iPhone as a platform to be reckoned with. Huge consumer appeal with good business-oriented functionality AND free development tools, there is no doubt they will do well. It’ll be interesting to see if PA Semi will build PowerPC-based or ARM-based SoC for the iPhone. My bet is on ARM.
These MIDs definitely are competing with smartphones/ PDAs. There will be a call by some for a small unsmartphone and MID combo as holding one of these to your ear wouldn’t work aka HTC Advantage. So the need for BT/ or small module.
24hrs constant on would work fine if this is referring to an equivalent of what HTC Shift offers with its SnapVUE. That is supposedly 53hrs.
Obviously you aren’t using your connection all the time, just polling like a phone.
Personally, I agree with ecsk2. However If you have a thin enough bezel you could just fit a 6″ device. This is based on a maximum 16x10cm device.
Will
Current MIDs are not there to displace smartphones. They will be dedicated internet tablet, navi, pmp and entertainment devices. Very few will have voice. Its my opinion that Intel won’t really worry about how succesful Menlow is becuase all their energy and investment is now in the next phase. When Moorestown comes along and gives designers far more flexibility we’ll see some merging of MIDs into Smartphones. The all-in-one as you mentioned, will be possible. It’s at this stage that Intel need to worry about the success and competition with WM and iPhone.
Steve.
Integrate a MID with a phone and the whole idea disappears. I don’t want a 4-6″ phone, it would be a silly, not very usable device. Consumers that don’t want a MID now, will not want a 6″ phone either. A MID can at many times replace a laptop, so think of it as a 12-14″ device in a 4-6″ form factor, not an over sized phone without the voice part.
A smart phone like the iphone cannot do the same things as a atom device or Nokia n810 for example, and it shouldn’t either.
A MID can be used with VOIP and a headset if you want that, but integrating GSM/3G voice wouldn’t add much value. And even if you do, I’d still have a separate phone with well below 3″ screen and max 100g weight.
Steve,
It might not be the intention for MIDs to replace Smartphones, but if I can get a smartphone that does everything a MID can then that is what I will get especially if it is subsidised by a network. And that is what all MID sellers have as competition. When I worked for One2One Marketing, the units that sold the most had the smallest initial cost. Then the additional costs where factored in and then extra functionality. This is for the Consumers (not Prosumers, who generally are willing to shell out more for the best.) This is the 40 million mass market that is covered in this article.
Form factor wise the U810 seems MID territory, but I think the decider should be the external dims. and not the screen size. I want a Pocketable MID not a bag. Personally I still like the term Pocket PC
Steve,
My current device runs on 3.7V and 1540mAh and runs AIM, YAHOO and MSN messengers all online/active at all times and push emails and it lasts the whole time I am awake, yes it is not a 3G device (as you know NA is behind on that) but this was my whole point for these services you don’t need the battery draining 3G so it would be smart (if?) a 3G could use (E)GPRS for such services and 3G only when needed just like the 900/1800 switching works in GSM networks!
Just as VOIP solutions have really done a huge impact on how people “call” each other worldwide now, in many countries where there is a good price difference between making mobile phone calls and using services such as Skype people are indeed running and using Skype on their phones (not even smartphones many times), just for instance look at the number of different (Nokia in this case) “regular” (read non smart-) phones Skype is available for now:
http://www.skype.com/intl/en/download/skype/mobile/choose/#nokiaTab
With this in mind although I don’t see MIDs taking over or replacing the mobile phone as such any time soon, the amount of users that will be using it for that (if technically possible) will no doubt grow rapidly! Especially if there will be any kind of separate handset possible as with the Willcom D4 (MID?)
http://wizzerz.com/homesite/2008/04/15/archives/willcom-shows-off-first-production-atom-device/
Ecsk2.
Yup. 3G is such a killer. I don’t know of any device that drops back to GSM when 3G is still available though. Most people do manual switching.
I did a couple of tests on the N82 and with GSM, the battery lasted, I think I remember rightly, 3 times longer than with 3G!
6W battery is quite big for a smartphone. What device was it again?
Steve.
When you say drops back to GSM do you mean DATA OFF? What I mean(t) was 3G ->(E)GPRS when not browsing/downloading/streaming etc so as to keep an open data channel as I know first hand from both my devices that they will last long enough for me to be able to use them all day on EGPRS.
Sidekick LX
http://reviews.cnet.com/cell-phones/t-mobile-sidekick-lx/4505-6454_7-32627592.html
Although being marketed as teenage (or Hollywood famous people’s) messaging toy it has some very unique and great features including the email/IMs and most importantly the FIVE ROW KEYBOARD, best thumb board on the market by ANY means!
No I don’t mean data off. I mean dropping back to GSM data. I wonder how much advantage it would have with all the GSM/UMTS handshaking that would be required. Its probably why it’s not implemented. I could be very wrong on this as i’m no cellular radio expert.
S.
OK so just to make sure I am following here 3G data off, but (E)GPRS / GSM data on? That’s what I was thinking of, and I still consider (E)GPRS as DATA though not 3G, if this could be implemented say as smoothly as Apple has been able to implement (E)GPRS WIFI switching I don’t see why not, on the iPhone (yeah there I go again) one can let the phone ask (with popups) if you want to join a WIFI network if/when available, or you can disable that “popup” or you can obviously keep WIFI off all together.
I disagree that an iPhone cannot do the same thing as an Atom device or the N810. The only major thing the iPhone browser is missing is Flash support and I’m sure this will be added soon.
If the only advantage of the Atom-based MIDs is its size, I don’t think it’ll be succesful at all. I agree with chippy that Intel’s main focus is Moorestown and MIDs (and Menlow) are just a stepping stone in their ultimate goal for an x86 SoC.
Talking about size, I personally think that the iPhone is about as large as a pocketable device should be. I just played with the 4.1″ Nokia N810 and certainly would not want to carry that around in my pocket.
Ultimately the question is will a 5″ non-pocketable, companion device gain significant marketshare? No. The Nokia IT failed miserably (although lousy software was partly to blame) and I predict the same for Intel MIDs. Devices like the iPhone 3G, Xperia, BlackBerry Thunder, HTC Diamond will make them largely irrelevant.
@ Will,
Well there is a lot of things the iPhone is lacking, such as a real qwerty keyboard, copy and paste, and the list could go on.
Yes it lacks flash and a number of other features that is annoying, but comparing it to devices in its own class such as other mobile internet devices / smart phones it gives one of the best experiences indeed.
Until Apple does what it did to the smart phone world with the iPhone to the MID world with an MID unit I think these MIDs will have great success, if priced right!
iPhone is around the right size for the smart phone category yes, but the MIDs are a separate category with a little more expectations from the users and you can’t really everything on a 3.5″ screen with HVGA despite nice zoom features.
4.1-5″ is still VERY acceptable as long as the thickness and weight isn’t overboard and battery time acceptable. I assume you mean Nokia Internet Tablet? (You know there was a Nokia computer brand too back in the day :)) although it hasn’t met my needs I don’t think you can by any means say it “failed miserably”, keep in mind that these lacked until now totally any WWAN feature so they would be comparable only to old school PDAs in that sense but not having the same appeal as WinCE/WM devices had/have due to huge amounts of 3rd party software.
The MIDs are pushing a lot further than the Nokia Tablets ever did though, just the simple fact of having a real keyboard is one such indicator!
Please! While it might be in some discussions hard to really pinpoint where the iPhone belongs, as it does have some MID features and some smart phone features, but at the same time lacking in both, the others Xperia, BlackBerry, HTC Diamond are all smart PHONES and will remain as such and shouldn’t be even considered to be compared with MIDs!
Don’t get me wrong I am strongly considering the Xperia for my wife, but they are not devices in this class by any means!
Just to clarify, when I say MIDs, I mean Intel’s definition of MIDs, a 4-6″ Silverthorne based device with 3G connectivity but WITHOUT voice calling capability (not including VoIP like Skype). So strictly speaking the iPhone is not a MID either.
On the other hand, it is mobile and you can browse the internet on it… :)
The question is then, what can you do on a MID that you can’t do on a (WM, iPhone, Blackberry or even Symbian) smartphone? In my opinion, not much.
The only advantage I see with a MID is the larger screen. The disadvantage is that you WILL need to carry a phone as well and it won’t be pocketable (for me anyway).
The only way I can see MIDs succeeding is by having mobile carriers heavily subsidise them. 99€ upfront plus 35€ per month (for 24 months) for unlimited 3G data.
The Nokia ITs (sorry I do mean Internet tablets) are also designed to be a companion device and in theory you don’t need WWAN as it was designed to connect to the internet through your phone. I don’t think adding a 3G radio to the N810 would significantly increase its marketshare. BTW, the Nokia N810 has a hardware keyboard, albeit a poorly designed one!
As for failing, well.. If you surveyed 1000 people on the street, how many could tell you what the Nokia N810 was? Then do the same with the iPhone. I would bet good money that Apple has sold more iPhones than the N770, N800 and N810 combined.
The software is buggy as hell, the interface is not intuitive, it is NOT ready out of the box and overall is not meant for general consumers. Its a niche geek toy.
I for one would certainly consider the idea of using a BT headset or seperate handset together with a MID if the MID could cope the whole workday. What smart phones can’t do is offer full qwerty keyboard (well they could, as I’m typing on one as we speak, but typically don’t). Also although there is plenty software for the symbian and windows mobile platforms etc the software often if not always isn’t 100% 1:1 or compatible with the desktop editions.
There is plenty of people out there who’s ultimate goal is to have everything your desktop/laptop offers in your pocket.
Also the screen sizes and ultimately resolutions offered on smart phones really don’t cut it really.
Now measuring the success of a product by how many people would know it on the street can hardly be a reliable indicator as to how successful or not a product has been, I mean just go out on the street and ask about “EEE” and lets see the % of your average person who knows anything about it!
Personally I’m following the MID sector with a lot of interest as it might just be able to offer what UMPC’s really couldn’t.
There are many smartphones that offer full QWERTY keyboards. On WM, you have slide out keyboards (like the HTC TyTn II, Sony X1), front-facing keyboards (Samsung i780, Motorola Q9H) and even clamshells (Asus M930).
Also software on Ubuntu mobile won’t be compatible with their desktop counterparts either. Ubuntu mobile applications will be built using the Hildon application framework. I don’t think you’ll be able to run Ubuntu Desktop applications and you certainly won’t be able to run Win32 applications.
I just read this on the M528
http://www.umpcfever.com/news/?postid=828
And TWO hours of real use is just not acceptable :(
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