I’ve seen Ultrabook market penetration estimates that range from 40% by end of 2012 all the way across to this, the lowest forecast so far. 13% by end of 2012.

As we all know by now, the Ultrabook is radically different to traditional notebooks in terms of design and production so as far as I’m concerned, if we see all major manufacturers on board with production lines and supply-chains responding, there will be no turning back and the Ultrabook design and production methods will permeate most of the laptop market. I expect we will see the first signs that the Ultrabook design is succeeding in late 2012 with netbooks, Windows 8 ‘Ultraslates’ and perhaps a new style of MacBook Pro looking distinctly ‘new-wave’ and as the Ultrabook design starts to become cheaper because of volumes, the market will flip completely.

By the end of 2013 Intel could find it impossible to retain any sort of Ultrabook definition because most notebooks will offer similar style, always-on and SSD characteristics. [Unless Intel have a bunch of patents tucked away with the Ultrabook trademark!]

You could even argue that ARM-based notebooks running Windows 8 in 2014 could count towards a loose Ultrabook definition. They will certainly look like Ultrabooks. [Again, unless Intel is building a patent barrier.]

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It always makes me laugh when I hear about $99 smartbooks competing with netbooks because the only real difference in cost is a few dollars in silicon, plastic and battery.

The other thing that makes me laugh is how people get hung up on parts cost and potential profit while forgetting the market reasearch, r&d, marketing, distribution, training, support, legal, insurance, shipping, tax and, shock!, profits associated with a device.

Have a look at this isuppli breakdown and you’ll see just how much a high-end smart device costs to make . A high end netbook selling 1m+ is coming in at about$150 due to the cheaper screens and lack of gps, accelerometer, hard drive and other components. The r&d and market research figures are also close to zero in the netbook market so you can see that large format smart devices have a long way to go before they become sub $200 desirable items.

Another good checkpoint is the Archos 5 Android Tablet which, with a similar integrated cpu and gpu, smaller battery, 8GB storage, 256MB RAM, less plastic, open source OS and a 5″ resistive touchscreen is being sold for $240.

Source : iSuppli.

iSuppli breaks down iPad cost, guess how much 3G costs | GottaBeMobile.com.