ABI reported last week that ultra-portable PCs accounted for 12% of all notebook shipments in 2013, way short of anything Intel wanted to achieve with the Ultrabook segment. It raises questions as we see marketing efforts for Ultrabooks fall. Is this leading-edge notebook segment ever going to be a big seller? If it has good profit margins does it need to be or are we underestimating the impact that the Ultrabook ‘project’ has had on the wider notebook market?

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In a report issued yesterday, iSuppli is predicting that 45 million SSD, cache SSD and Hyrid HDD solutions will ship for Ultrabooks and ultrathins in 2013 indicating a huge 4X jump over 2012. Isuppli is predicting that despite a contraction of the PC market but that a flattening off of interest for ‘superthins’ will ‘take-off’ in the second half of 2013.

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Although Juniper research have predicted that 178 million Ultrabooks will ship in 2016, they’ve also predicted that 20 million will sell in 2012. ABI Research have just issued a similar number but include Apple products in that figure.

Meryl Lynch predicted 15 Million Ultrabooks. Data from ISI indicates 10 million. Isuppli had predicted over 20 million in 2012 but revised that to 10 million recently in an attention-seeking report.

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Look at the Amazon US Best Sellers list and wish list.  Laptops are few and far between in this and similar buy/wish/trend lists and it echoes what we see on Ultrabooknews. The market for Ultrabooks has been flat for the last three months. Today I see that PC sales are projected to fall for the first time in a very long time.

Yesterday evening I put together a Vodcast on the topic and spoke about the issues and the Windows 8 opportunity. I’ve included more detail in the article below. Video also embedded below.

• Where’s the Ultrabook Buzz? Report on market conditions
• Here’s a little inside report on SEO and performance at Ultrabooknews

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iHS, owner of iSuppli seems to find it funny that they’ve had to slash their estimations for Ultrabook sales by 50%. “Dude, You’re Not Getting an Ultrabook” does a great job at getting the media to echo the story but did iHS cock-up or did the market change dramatically in the last few months? We’re a month away from Windows 8, prices have dropped considerably and the Ultrabook looks well-positioned to take a large percentage of the laptop sales market in Q4. Was the back-to-school period disappointing or is the laptop market overall going to suffer in Q4 and take Ultrabooks with it? This is no laughing matter.

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According to an NPD report, Ultrabooks are selling well in some segments of the US market. In the Jan-May 2012 period they helped push an increase in sales of the $700 + segment and comprised nearly 11% of that part of the market.Month-on-month growth seems to be strong too.

Soure: NPD

Overall the $700 segment represents  14% of the laptop market but profit per unit and profit margins are generally higher so it’s an important figure.

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Western Europe will tie with North America as the largest Ultrabook market in 2016 with sales of around 90 million in total, says a report by Juniper Research, UK. Global annual sales are predicted to be 178 million for 2016. Sales will take-off in 2014.

Full details are only available to those paying a hefty sum for the full report but Juniper give us a few things to think about in a video, a white paper, a press release and a list of contents…

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If you want a laugh at a spin on some good news this morning, read the story that Apples share of the Ultrabook market will fall. When you own nearly 100% of the market and you get your first competitors, the only way to go is down. the good news is that sales numbers, the important figures, will rise.

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