I just hacked this image up (apologies HP and Apple) as an easy way to illustrate how Windows on netbooks is at risk. Add either of the touch, UI, app store and always-on features and you’ve got something that Microsoft can’t currently compete with.

This scenario would immediately affect sales of Windows-netbooks where people are buying netbooks as second devices, gadgets or for family, friend and other social and casual (online or off) scenarios . For productivity scenarios, Windows still counts because the apps don’t exist on the common app-store ecosystems yet. I don’t have figures but in the U.S. and Europe I guess 30% of netbooks are bought as a second PC, a gadget or for the sofa/family/friend social (online and off) scenario. That’s a lot of lost Windows 7 license sales.

I talked about the 4 ‘lock-in’ opportunities (more than just ‘good’ opportunities’) for ‘Social Netbooks’ in this article. Google could make it happen by enabling Marketplace on Android – A potential risk for Intel. Intel themselves could make it happen with products like Moorestown, MeeGo and AppUp  or a surprise player could enter the market.

My opinion is that  THIS WILL HAPPEN. Someone will add a touchable, dynamic, fun user interface, an app-store, location and always-on features to a netbook form factor leaving just the productive applications as the missing piece. Given the chance (i.e. an application store) developers will move quickly to fill those  gaps in software for productive uses making the smart device BETTER than the Windows-based, traditional netbook device. What that means for Microsoft is that a huge portion of the netbook market could be served by a  non-Windows OS solutions. Just think of the market positioning too. Isn’t it easier to market an ‘upgrade’ from a smartphone than a ‘downgrade’ from a laptop.

When does this happen? I’m expecting Google to announce a move into the ‘third screen’ space with Android very soon. Intel are ready with Moorestown and MeeGo in Q4 so the change starts to happen in 2011. I estimate that while netbook sales (of both sub-genres) will increase, the percentage of Microsoft netbooks will stay level or even drop. [Sidenote: Intel thinks that the non-windows sales will reduce in percentage by 2012.  I think they are underestimating the ‘smart’ device opportunity.]

Is Intel at risk? Yes. If Google, Android and ARM reach the flag before Intel and MeeGo, Intel start to lose market share in the netbook market but also remember, Android could run on Intel’s new Moorestown platform offering smartbook manufacturers a more powerful computing experience. Also note that if netbooks flip to non-Windows ‘smart’ devices it serves as a nice dividing line between laptops and netbooks for Intel, restoring the need for different netbook, CULV and laptop processing platforms and allowing them to make more and more powerful Atom CPUs without hurting the laptop segment.

I’m not the first to talk about this and it’s certainly not the first time I’ve thought about it myself but that image just makes it crystal clear for me. Netbooks will change dramatically. If Google doesn’t enable it, someone else will and in any case, Microsoft will suffer.

This is a follow-on article to ‘Is Tunnel Creek the new Consumer Handheld CPU from Intel? No. (Better Things Are Coming)‘

I define a smart device as being mobile, always on, always connected, sensor-aware and having what I call a dynamic operating system. That is, an OS that is interesting to use, stylish and that is ‘point-of-sale capable’ via an active application and content ecosystem. The prime example of a dynamic operating system is Apple’s iPhone OS.

In this article I want to talk about Intel’s Moorestown, a platform Intel has been public about  for over 2 years. It’s Intel’s stab at a platform for the mobile, always-on, always connected segment. That is, smart devices. From smartphones and smart tablets all the way up to smart netbooks. As ARM-based smartphones get bigger and more powerful and already have ALL the smart features required, there’s a huge risk to Intel so clearly there’s a serious business reason for doing this and getting it right.

At IDF in Beijing today, Pankaj Kedia presented the latest information on the Moorestown platform and in his slides, he gives a good overview of where the device is targeted and what its key features are. Let me walk you through some of the slides. (Obviously I wasn’t present for the presentation and i’m not privvy to Pankaj’s notes. These are simply my opinions.)

Here’s the threat. I doubt Pankaj would have used that expression though as it’s clearly being taken as an opportunity.

For the first time, Intel have started to reference the tablet segment when talking about Moorestown. Clearly this is becoming a topic of interest for their potential customers. The ultra mobile PC years are referenced as the ‘first coming.’

Here’s a diagram that shows where Moorestown would sit in terms of products. If I had drawn that slide I would have also included the ‘smart’ netbook segment. Moorestown is likely to scale up to processing power beyond the top of what ARM-based platforms can product right now and there’s a good opportunity to defend against the risk of ARM moving into that segment of the netbook market. (See tomorrows article ‘A Smart Netbook Image’ for more on that.)

This is as much of the architecture as has been made public so far but thought leaks and discussions with engineers and developers we can say with some confidence that the graphics and hardware video acceleration is based on the GMA500 GPU (possibly clocked higher than on Menlow) and included 720p hardware encoding (for HD video recording.) The bus between Langwell and Lincroft is likely to be DMI (not PCIe) and as you can see, there are tightly coupled control and communications chips. Brierstown is responsible for power management.

As with Tunnel Creek, the CPU includes hyperthreading which can boost effective performance. Burst (bus boost) and Turbo (cpu boost) technology is also included. Intel have previously said that the nominal clockrate is 600Mhz with boosting to 1.6Ghz although we suspect there will be different versions of Lincroft spanning smartphone to netbook applications. One of the most important features and something that sets Lincroft apart from  Tunnel Creek is ‘Power Gating’ which allows Moorestown to compete with high-end ARM-based smartphone platforms. It is this feature that is allowing the CPU to idle to 1/50th of the idle power we saw on Menlow.

More information on Power Gating in this article

An interesting point from this slide is ‘OS Guided’ power management. What that means is that some of the power management features won’t work with Windows. MeeGo is the primary operating system for this platform and the two products are being developed side-by-side. Overall, we should see a 50% platform (not including screen backlight I assume) power reduction in average usage scenarios, and huge improvements in idle power drain. Overall it allows the platform to run in a similar power profile as high-end ARM-based solutions such as Tegra 2, Ti OMAP 34xx and Apples A4 solution.

The next public check-point for Intel will be Computex in Taiwan, June 2010 so unless Intel (or their customers) release information before then, we’ll have to wait a few months for more details. I’ll be in Taiwan for Computex so stay tuned for more coverage.

Note: Products are still planned for the second half of 2010. Two products have been announced. The LG GW990 smartphone and the Open Peek Media Phone.

Slides courtesy of Intel and available in the ‘Content Catalogue‘

A few days ago I did some research and analysis on the new ‘Queensbay’ platform from Intel It’s a highly integrated 2-chip system comprising Tunnel Creek processing platform and I/O chip that takes the platform used on many current MIDs and UMPCs and optimizes it in a similar way that Pinetrail did for netbooks. Despite some improvements in size and graphics power and a hint that it might be capable of some cool consumer and media devices, it’s not the Apple A4 / Tegra 2 competitor that I’m guessing will get referenced in articles today. That job lies with Moorestown and I’ll tell you more about that later today on Carrypad. Update: Intel Moorestown article now available.

Tunnel Creek was formerly announced today. See Intel Press Release.
More detailed information has already been made available. See below.

Tunnel Creek integrates a lot of activity on one die and offers a doubling of GPU power, an increase in memory bus speed, an open PCIe bus Southbridge architecture that allows for third party chipsets, a SATA storage interface and a promise of a lower bill of materials. It is possible to build some nice little handhelds out of it and one could imagine interesting tablets with Nvidia Ion on board but later today, we’ll hear more about something that’s been build ground-up for handheld tablets, mids, smartphones, active remote controls and of course, the ‘iPad killers.’

I’ll write about Moorestown later today but for the time being, here are some schematics for Tunnel Creek; the first showing the differences between Menlow (I’m using a PC based on Menlow right now) and Tunnel Creek and the last slide showing Tunnel Creek vs Menlow in a mediaphone scenario.

There are a couple of things there that I didn’t mention in my previous article. Number 1 hardware accelerated video ENCODE. 2) Audio DSP functions. This leads me to believe that Tunnel Creek is in fact a version of Lincroft, the processing unit used in the Moorestown platform. We’ll talk more about that later.

For the Intel IDF presentation on Tunnel Creek (from which the above slides were taken) see the IDF 2010 Beijing Content Catalogue and search for ‘Tunnel Creek’ (Unfortunately I can’t link direct as the catalogue generates one-time URLs.)

For a primer on Moorestown, see the links below. More detailed information on Moorestown architecture is expected from IDF later today.

Moorestown Digging a little deeper.

Intel’s Moorestown Platform. From Smartphone Through Smartbook and Beyond.

I remember back to the forming of the Open Handset Alliance back in Nov 2007 when the ‘Open Platform for Mobile Devices’ was announced. Intel were a founding member and it was unclear what silicon platform Android was going to use. I think the term Google used at the time was ‘processor independent.’ Soon after that, the thought of running Android in Intel faded away but Intel has remained a member. Recently I’ve been hearing more and more news about Android on X86 and in news out today from IDF in Beijing, it’s been confirmed.

It looks like this is all stemming from the news that Google and Intel are getting together to offer Google TV  [news was published by NYTimes on 17th March.]. Yes, Intel is involved with another project to build software for TV’s (MeeGo) but there’s no way that Intel are going to say ‘no’ if Google are interested in the platform.

The likely platform is ‘Sodaville’ which is aimed at media delivery through an Atom CPU and a GMA500 graphics and video processor in a highly integrated, low-cost and power-efficient package.  The platform is very similar to that used in MIDs, UMPCs and embedded applications. It’s also likely to be very similar to the upcoming platform for smartphones, Moorestown. (More on that tomorrow.)

In Beijing today, the story took another step forward when Rene James, GM of Intel’s software and services group, confirmed that Android was indeed running on Atom and was also running on the Smartphone platform. That’s Moorestown. Apparently, customers are interested.

No real surprises there to be honest. Android ‘running’ on an X86 platform is hardly groundbreaking news but it does highlight that Moorestown will not just be a MeeGo-only platform. Indeed, Windows, Chrome OS, OSX, Linux builds, Android and MeeGo would all work. It’s just a matter of getting the people (money) together to make it happen.

As I mentioned in the MeeGo article today –

Stay very closely tuned to the Linux Foundation Collaboration Summit which starts tomorrow and runs for three days. Intel, Nokia and Google are all there.

Maybe we’ll hear more very soon!

From time to time I like to gather my thoughts and knowledge on CPU’s, GPUs and processing platforms in the ultra mobile market and re-base my knowledge. My last report was on ARM platforms and is available here and after Computex in June I want to do the same for al X86 platforms but in the meantime, I’ve been gathering information on Intel’s Queensbay which is going to be presented at the Intel Developer Forum in Beijing on April 14th. Although Queensbay is a product intended for the embedded market, its worth taking a closer look at it is likely to be a follow-on solution for MIDs

Details haven’t been made public yet but I’ve researched as much as I can. Intel presentation materials should appear on the IDF content catalogue after the event.

Intel IDF Session Details SPCS002 Tunnel Creek. (Indirect link – look for SPCS002 on the list o presentations)

We tend to think of Embedded Systems as products doing a single task like traffic lights or a washing machine but it’s fair to also regard them as single, highly integrated and focused computing devices. Many of today’s UMPCs and MIDs and even some netbooks are built on the Menlow platform which is also targeted at embedded solutions. There’s an interesting crossover that occurs when you get to highly integrated computing platforms.

Queensbay is the name of a new platform with an Atom-based CPU called Tunnel Creek (as the Atom-based Pineview would be on the Pinetrail netbook platform.)  Tunnel Creek comes in 600Mhz, 1Ghz and 1.3Ghz variants which all offer hyperthreading and Intels ‘VT’ virtualisation technology. Beside the CPU sits the memory controller (max 1GB) and coupled on the same ‘Tunnel Creek’ silicon is the graphics subsystem, GMA500/PowerVR, known as ‘Topcliff.  The separate I/O chip, known as IOH is connected via a PCIe bus. The architecture is very similar to that of Pinetrail although the interconnecting bus is a standard PCIe bus instead of the Intel’s DMI.

From Intel on Tunnel Creek:

A low power integrated processor with PCIe as the interface to the I/O hub (IOH).  Utilizing PCIe will enable multiple market-specific IOHs from multiple vendors to be used to scale into a large variety of embedded market segments.  Details to be discussed at IDF Beijing, Spring 2010.

(Ref)

Note that this is a different architecture to Menlow. On Menlow, the GPU and memory controller is contained within the System Controler Hub (SCH) and connected via the Front Side Bus at 400 or 533Mhz. Clearly, putting the memory controller and GPU next to the CPU improves the  performance.

There are some other interesting points to note about the architecture.

• The IOH is connected via PCIe bus which leaves it open for third party chipset solutions. (E.g. Nvidia ION- ref)
• The GPU in Topcliff (again a GMA 500/PowerVR core) is clocked at twice the speed (400Mhz)  than on Menlow. (see some performance results here)
• The CPU seems to be a little more powerful, per-clock, than before (based on information from the same article)
• SATA is now available on the IOH. Previously, Menlow only offered a PATA interface.
• 10/100/1000 LAN controller is integrated into the IOH
• Memory bus supports DDR2 at 667 and 800 speeds which is faster than Menlow.

It’s not known whether Topcliff has video decoding engines in it but we would imagine it would for set-top-box and digital signage solutions.

TDP for the platform is 5W, similar to existing Menlow solutions (but obviously providing much improved performance through HT and improved GPU performance and therefore, lower average power figures.)

Quensbay will be manufactured using a 45nm process (as are Menlow and Moorestown)

Queensbay appears to be the follow-on from Menlow and move to a similar SOC architecture as with Pinetrail and Moorestown (although without power-gating required for smartphone usage scenarios.) The architecture looks to be Windows-capable (with 1.3Ghz. DDR2-800 and SATA it could run Windows 7 although the 1GB memory limit needs to be taken into consideration) and if Moorestown is initially going to launch as a MeeGo-only product (Morestown-Windows comes later) Queensbay would be the natural choice for MIDs and UMPCs running Windows or Linux. Fingers crossed that the MeeGo project includes support for this platform as it could make a powerful and flexible consumer internet device platform.

My only question at this stage would be: ‘Why Queensbay AND Moorestown?’ Is it a pricing issue? With no power-gating, turbo-boost (unconfirmed) integrated H.264 encoding, camera interface, audio, maybe Queensbay is the natural choice for simple, low-cost MIDs.

Oh. and one more question: Does Menlow continue too? With 1.3-2.0Ghz solutions, I guess so.

Watch out for more news from IDF Beijingover the coming days.

References:

Computerbase.de – Details zu Queensbay, Tunnel Creek und Topcliff August 2009

Netbook Navigator has been working hard on getting that Nav 9 [Specifications] to market and we’ve just heard that a review sample is going to be with us very soon. Apparently they’ve taken a few weeks to optimise a touchscreen that wasn’t up to par and in that time they’ve also updated the package and pricing.

The Atom N450-based 1GB/16GB tablet is now available as a base version for $599 including a large capacity battery, carrying case, 8GB SD card and car charger. That price doesn’t include an operating system but there’s a good chance that Moblin, Jolicloud and Ubuntu are going to work out of the box (don’t expect multitouch) and as we go forward, MeeGo is going to be an option not to mention any old XP licenses you have lying around.

We still have reservations about the size, weight and form-factor for any of these netbook-based tablets that are appearing and seriously, the ASUS T101MT including Windows 7 with 2GB, touch/multitouch screen on the latest Pinetrail platform for a similar price (admittedly, with a weight premium) sounds like a much better product overall but if a Windows-based slate is the way you want to go, this isn’t a bad deal.

While the MeeGo community moves forward towards its May 1st Release, Intel is is moving forward with the AppStore framework that will available for use in MeeGo. Today Intel announce that their AppUp Center,  is now available for Moblin (which will migrate to MeeGo) and that it will begin accepting Euro and Pound payments opening it up to another 300+ million people.

We have this announcement from Intel:

Intel today introduced Intel AppUp^SM Center Beta for Moblin v2.1-based netbooks in the U.S. and Canada. Intel AppUp Center offers a wide range of applications, spanning games, entertainment and social media apps that are optimized for the netbook’s mobility and screen size. Additionally, Intel announced the Intel AppUp center beta for Windows and Moblin v2.1 will become available in 27 European countries on March 31. The expansion into Europe gives application developers in the Intel® Atomâ„¢ Developer Program an opportunity to reach consumers in one of the top markets for netbooks worldwide and complete transactions in USD, Euros or GBP. Future updates to the Intel AppUp Center will support the MeeGo software platform and smartphones, consumer electronics and additional devices.

Clearly the target is netbooks here and although there aren’t many Moblin versions knocking around in the market yet, you can download and install V2.1 from a USB stick on almost any netbook. However, that’s not really the end-game here. The application framework used for the AppUp store now allows OEMs to build Linux-base netbooks with a full payment-enabled application store that adds value and opens possibilities for developers and as we look forward to handhelds and netbooks based on MeeGo, you start to get the bigger picture about why this is happening and what the potential is.

I’ll be taking a closer look at the AppUp center for Moblin as soon as it appears. We’re expecting an announcement on the AppUp store website.

This is the first time we’ve seen a product built with an Intel Atom processor using Android including, the Google Marketplace application, Flash and Air. Add an 11.6″ multitouch screen and a target weight of 800gm with 6 hours battery life and you’ve got a very challenging project indeed. Neofonie hopes to make it happen with the WePad.

The WePad is part of an ecosystem of software, content and hardware that works together to offer a way for companies to have end-to-end control over delivery of their content. An 11.6 inch 1366×768 multitouch display is the centerpiece of this tablet that runs on an Intel Pineview (netbook) platform. (Full specs below.)

There’s no technical reason that Android can’t run on an Intel platform and in fact there are X86 builds out there for you to test but its when you add ‘Flash’ ‘Air’ and ‘Google Marketplace’ that you get a feeling for the timescales and risks involved in this project. Even the battery life is a little on the overzealous side. We’ve never seen an 800gm device running on any sort of X86 platform return 6 hours battery life with a 11.6 inch screen. 4hrs is a far more realistic figure in our opinion.

The strategic partner in this operation might be Siemens and the idea might be good (we’re particularly interested to see if Google allow their marketplace on such a device) but the hardware build looks very expensive, the project feels like its going to take a long time and it looks like there are risks involved on the way. We’re not getting too excited just yet but we’re going to try hard to put our German ‘Pad’ company in contact with their German ‘Pad’ company to see if we can get a visit/hands-on/interview set up.  Stay tuned.

Update: More WePad information is going to be announced. Partners will be announced this week and pricing and availability on the 12th April. See Facebook fan page.

Our pricing guess: 800 Euro with 3G, without content/3G deal/subsidy.

English information (PDF)  is available.

Specifications (Translated, Via newgadgets.de)

• Display: 11,6″ 1366 x 768 Pixeln, Mutitouch
• Processor: 1,66 GHz Intel Atom N450 Pineview-M
• Storage: 16 GB NAND Flash (optional 32 GB internal/ 32 GB SD Card)
• Webcam: Yes (1,3 Megapixel)
• Interfaces: 2 x USB , SD Cardreader, Audio output, SIM Card Slot, Multi-Pin Connector
• Adobe Flash / Adobe Air: Yes/ Yes
• Applications: WePad AppStore and Google Android Marketplace
• Multitasking: Yes
• Battery: Lithium-Ion Polymer (Life: ca. 6 hours)
• Supported eBook formats: All open plus Premium (WeBook), From H4/2010
• Connectivity: Bluetooth 2.1, WLANn, optional 3G
• GPS: ja (optional)
• Body: Magnesium-Aluminium
• Size: 288×190x13mm
• Weight: 800g (850g mit 3G)
• Other: Ambient Light Sensor, Accelerometer, Stereo Speakers, internal microphone.